037
FXUS63 KLMK 211955
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
355 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS, ISOLATED TORNADOES, AND FLASH FLOODING
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW, CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI, IS AN AREA
OF CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM ST. LOUIS UP THROUGH PEORIA. INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, THIS LOW WILL GET PUSHED TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA BY
JUNKIE ZONAL FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE LINE OF CONVECTION
TOWARDS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
AHEAD OF THE LINE, IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S. THEY TAPER OFF INTO THE MID 60S OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BUT WILL CONTINUE INCREASING A FEW DEGREES
BEING LIFTED BY SOUTHERN WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED GREATLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CAMS HAVE
THE MAIN LINE ENTERING OUR SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA COUNTIES AROUND 23-
00Z AND CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT.
THIS IS ENTERING AN ENVIRONMENT WITH CRAZY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.8 TO 2.25+ INCHES. ANYTHING NEAR 2 INCHES IS A LOT AND
HAS TO PUT FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ON THE MIND, SO ANY PLACE THAT
SEES TRAINING STORMS, MULTIPLE WAVES, OR SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD
PICK UP MULTIPLE INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. OUR 6 HOURS FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 2.5 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, NEAR BOWLING GREEN,
BEING ABLE TO TAKE THAT HIGHER AMOUNT. WHERE WE HAVE THE FLOOD WATCH
IN INDIANA IS CLOSER TO THE LOW AND WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES
CURRENTLY ARE FOR FLOODING. THE FLOODING THREAT MAY END UP BEING THE
GREATEST THREAT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
ON THE SEVERE WEATHER SIDE, MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS DYNAMICS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES OVER SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA. DEEP LAYER 0-
6 KM SHEAR IS OVER 40 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD TURNING WITH GOOD INFLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE HODOGRAPH AND LOW LEVEL SRH VALUES ARE
HIGH, BUT WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE LINE BEING WHEN WE LOSE
DIURNAL WARMING NEAR SUNSET, A STABLE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A POINT TO OUR WEST MOVING INTO OUR
AREA THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS BECOME MORE ELEVATED WHERE IT WILL BE
HARDER TO GET A TORNADO TO THE GROUND. LCLS ARE LOWER IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE THAN THEY HAS BEEN, AND OVERALL, INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY
WEAK WITH MLCAPE REMAINING UNDER 1,000 J/KG. THE BETTER INSTABILITY
REMAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND WEST OF BOWLING GREEN. BELIEVE
IT'S POSSIBLE THE STRONGER CONVECTION ENDS UP MISSING A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE CWA AS CONVECTION CHASES THE INSTABILITY SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN KENTUCKY WHILE SOME ACTIVITY STAYS WITH THE LOW MOVING OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA.
BY AROUND 6Z OR A LITTLE AFTER, THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT,
CEILING ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LIKELY.
MONDAY, THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL LAG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
WILL VEER WINDS TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST, LIMITING HIGHS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE LOW 80S OVER SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
BY MONDAY NIGHT, CAA IS OVER THE CWA AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH GETS
PUSHED EAST FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH INDIANA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF WAA ON WEDNESDAY, LIFTING TEMPERATURES THAT
WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
BY THURSDAY.
THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH
PUSHES OFF THE THE EAST, ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH SMALL SURFACE LOWS
FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. IT
DON'T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT, BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, A STRONG
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD UNDER VFR CONDITIONS, BUT TO THE WEST OVER
ILLINOIS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ADVANCING THIS WAY. THIS LINE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA BETWEEN 22 AND 00Z
BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS ALL THE TAF SITES. AHEAD OF THE
LINE IT'S POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP, BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL IN VFR RANGES. THE MAIN LINE COULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO DROP
VISIBILITIES FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. BEHIND THE LINE, AND AFTER
6Z, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DROPPING FROM THE WEST INTO MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS NEAR HNB BEFORE THE LOWERING CONTINUE EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE OTHER TAF SITES.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW
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