973
FXUS63 KLMK 221046
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL 0.25-0.75" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH KY, WITH ISOLATED 1-3" IN THE SE CWA.
* LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
* UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST CWA IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AND GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
DOWN ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR FROM LOUISVILLE OVER TO LEXINGTON. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS PRETTY WORKED OVER FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS MORNING'S
ACTIVITY. FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY THROUGH NOON EDT. WE'LL EVALUATE HYDRO
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION IN TIME/AREA
WILL BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
=====MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT=====
STORMS CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST ACROSS THE AREA BEING AIDED BY ENOUGH
LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR TO SUSTAIN THEM. BECAUSE OF THIS, THESE CELLS
CONTINUE CYCLING AND FORMING WEAK MID TO LOW LEVEL ROTATION THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OUR SAVING
GRACE IT SEEMS IS A STABLE LAYER AT THE SURFACE KEEPING THIS
ROTATION ELEVATED. SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAINS THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER. AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, OUR FOCUS TURNS INTO A FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
MUCH OF THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING OVER THE SAME AREAS, CREATING
FLOODED ROADWAYS IN ISOLATED WESTERN COUNTIES. SIMILAR LOCALIZED
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TREKKING EAST. SW
INDIANA COUNTIES ALONG WITH MEADE AND BRECKINRIDGE COUNTIES HAVE
SEEN 2-4+ INCHES TONIGHT, WITH MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN INCOMING. FLASH
FLOOD WARNING EXISTS FOR THOSE SPECIFIC COUNTIES AND SHOULD THESE
STORMS SUSTAIN THEMSELVES LONG ENOUGH AS THEY TRACK EAST, MORE OF
THESE PRODUCTS BEING ISSUED CAN'T BE RULED OUT. PWATS REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE 1.6-1.8" RANGE, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING
STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EVENTUALLY, THE SHEAR AT LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL EXIT TOWARDS OUR
NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE, ALLOWING ANY REMAINING STORMS TO WEAKEN WITH
ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE LOW PRESSURE CREATING THESE STORMS
WILL FOLLOW A JET STREAK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS WELL, DRAGGING A
SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS, SHOWERS,
AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER AND BE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS WE WILL KEEP THE SAME HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE IN TIME FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO RETURN
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HREF MEAN SBCAPE VALUES
ARE SOMEWHAT MODEST RANGING 1000-1250 J/KG TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND
WITH LITTLE SHEAR IN PLACE, THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THE SEVERE RISK IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE LACK OF SHEAR OVERHEAD
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENT HREF 3HR PMM DATA KEEPS
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF >1+" RATES EAST OF OUR CWA, THOUGH A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TOWARDS SOME OF OUR SE COUNTIES DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT FALLS FROM THE CURRENT STORMS THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING
STORMS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO SUNDAY'S EVENT. MONDAY'S RAINFALL TOTALS
RANGE NEAR 0.25" ALONG AND SE OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH LESSER VALUES
IN SOUTHERN INDIANA. HIGHER TOTALS OF 0.5-0.75" ARE EXPECTED (50-
75%) IN A SW-NE ORIENTED LINE FROM MONROE TO FRANKLIN COUNTY ALONG
THE ORIENTATION OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. LOCALIZED POCKETS OF 1-
3" ARE POSSIBLE IN TRAINING STORMS WHICH WILL BE MONITORED FOR
FLASH FLOODING THREATS AS THE EVENING HOURS DRAW CLOSER.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SHIFTING
WINDS FROM THE NW, DROPPING PWATS, AND PUSHING RAIN OUT OF THE CWA
TOWARDS THE SE BY THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S IN THE NW TO LOW 80S IN THE SE.
CLOUDS LINGER UNTIL LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE LOW 60S. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW (~20%) AND ALL DEPENDS ON
HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT CAN CLEAR CLOUDS AWAY BEFORE SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION, A DRY TUESDAY
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S IS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW WILL
BRING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EAST INTO THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, A
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION CAUSING
A COLD FRONT TO STRETCH THROUGH CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL MO. LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BASICALLY PERSIST FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY WHILE BOTH FEATURES MOVE THROUGH. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF
QPF ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS THIS IS WHERE THE AMPLE
MOISTURE AXIS LIES. THE HEAVIEST WAVE OF RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
MORNING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME AREAS IN THE CWA MAY EVEN SEE 90
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING CLEARING KHNB FIRST. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE DOWN IN THE MVFR
RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING WITH SOME TEMPO DROPS TO IFR AT
TIMES. LOOK FOR COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE WITH AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS. CIGS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DOWN IN THE MVFR RANGE BEFORE INCREASING TO VFR LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR KYZ023>043-
045>049-053>057.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR INZ076>079-
083-084-089>092.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM....CAL
AVIATION.....MJ
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