303
FXUS63 KLMK 080550
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
150 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BRINGING
THREATS OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
* ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING,
INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING, COULD DEVELOP
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
* ADDITIONAL THREATS OF GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND COULD DEVELOP WITH
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THESE SPECIFIC THREATS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
CONFLUENCE, AND THE ASSOCIATED PWAT AIRMASS IS UP AROUND 2" THROUGH
THE COLUMN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE (2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE) AIRMASS,
HOWEVER THERE ISN'T A LOT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE END RESULT CONTINUES TO BE SLOW-MOVING
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS THAT DEVELOP ON REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS, AND THE COLLAPSE RATHER QUICKLY. BASIN AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS
WON'T BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, HOWEVER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAIRLY SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. A FEW FLASH
FLOOD INSTANCES MAY ARISE, AND SCATTERED FLOOD ADVISORIES SEEM
PROBABLE THROUGH THE DIURNAL PEAK LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT IN STORE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN AREA THAT SEE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAIN TODAY.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY, MILD LOW TEMPS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THE PESKY CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL START TO GET PICKED UP BY THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO AN
OPEN SHORTWAVE AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MORNING
WILL LIKELY START OFF QUIET, HOWEVER INITIATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ONCE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. ANOTHER RINSE/REPEAT DAY WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND/OR A HANDFUL OF FLOOD
ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WILL
FINALLY GET PICKED UP BY THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES BY THURSDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST AS AN OPEN WAVE, WITH MORE OF A SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, ALONG WITH LIGHTER
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COULD BE THE ONE DAY
WE DON'T GET A BUNCH OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND MORE JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLIER
IN THE DAY. WILL BE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, FOCUS WILL SHIFT UPSTREAM AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EJECTS TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE
IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX UPSTREAM DURING
PEAK HEATING, AND THEN WORK TOWARD OUR AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A COLD POOL THIS GETS GOING, AND TIME OF
ARRIVAL IT SEEMS FEASIBLE THAT A WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
COMPLEX THAT SURVIVES INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING. OVERALL, THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE ISN'T TOO IMPRESSIVE,
AND STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ARRIVING DURING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM.
HOWEVER, ALL YOU NEED IS A GOOD COLD POOL PUSHING INTO SOME
LINGERING MU CAPE, WHICH WE WILL LIKELY HAVE, AND MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTRIBUTING TO MCS MAINTENANCE. WILL
CARRY PRETTY WIDESPREAD POPS IN THE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. COULD BE SOME CONCERN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
GIVEN WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, AND PWATS
POTENTIALLY SURGING OVER 2" THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH THIS WAVE. ONE
THING THAT COULD MITIGATE THE EARLY FLOOD THREAT, HOWEVER, WOULD BE
THE LIKELY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. AT THIS VERY LEAST, THIS WAVE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR HIGHER
FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THE FOLLOWING WAVES EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
A CONCERNING SETUP LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER OUR AREA, WHILE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
FRONT SINKS INTO OUR REGION AND STALLS. THIS W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY
WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW, AND WITH MULTIPLE MOISTURE-LADEN
SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG IT, WE'LL EXPECTED REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWER
AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FINAL WAVE SOMETIME SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY COULD BE THE MOST POTENT, AND IF WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WE COULD BE SET UP FOR
SOME MORE CONCERNING FLOOD POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME.
ENSEMBLE PLUMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOW MOST CLUSTERING AROUND 2-4"
OF RAIN FOR BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS, HOWEVER 07/00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS
SHOW SWATHS OF 4-6" ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE SETUP WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY, PERIODS OF HIGH PWATS NEAR 2" THROUGH THE COLUMN, AND
TALL/SKINNY CAPE COMBINED WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (14-15K FEET),
THINK LOCALIZED AMOUNTS COULD POTENTIALLY BE HIGHER. ESPECIALLY WITH
THE W-E TRAINING OF MULTIPLE WAVES OVER THE SAME AREA. WILL BE
RAMPING UP MESSAGING TODAY, AND MAY HAVE TO START MENTIONING
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED FLOODING AS A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WILL MENTION ONE SCENARIO THAT COULD HELP US DODGE A ROUND OR TWO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF WE CAN GET ONE OF THE UPSTREAM MCS TO REALLY
BLAST THROUGH OUR REGION, IT COULD POTENTIALLY SET UP THE
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH. OF COURSE, WE WOULD
LIKELY HAVE TO PAY THE PRICE WITH A HIGHER DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF
THAT DID HAPPEN, SO I GUESS IT COULD BE A "PICK YOUR POISON" TYPE OF
DEAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY...
INTERESTING PATTERN CHANGE AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG
UPPER RIDING CHARACTERIZED BY H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 600 DAM WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH EASTERN FRINGES OF INFLUENCE INTO OUR
AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING US INTO A DRIER/WARMER PATTERN WITH THE
PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING WELL SOUTH. THE SETUP TRANSITIONS
TO A REX BLOCK PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK, AND SHOULD GIVE US
SOME RELIEF FROM THE RELENTLESS RAIN FOR A LITTLE BIT, HOWEVER AT
THE EXPENSE OF INCREASING TEMPS BACK TOWARD THE 90S. THIS WILL BE A
NOTABLE CHANGE AFTER WEEKEND TEMPS MORE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE TREND FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE AT
THE SURFACE. AREAS THAT SAW RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE MORE
LIKELY TO SEE FOG TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT WILL LIMIT COOLING, LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT TO SOME
DEGREE. PARTS OF THE REGION, MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENTUCKY,
COULD SEE FOG DROP VISIBILITIES INTO IFR LEVELS. THIS COULD HAPPEN
AT LEX, BWG, AND RGA. MORE OPTIMISTIC AT SDF AND HNB WHERE MVFR
COULD HAPPEN, MAINLY AT HNB. LATER IN THE DAY, MORE SCATTERED SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...KDW
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