210
FXUS63 KLMK 080748
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
348 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BRINGING
THREATS OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING,
INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING, COULD DEVELOP
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
* ADDITIONAL THREATS OF GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND COULD DEVELOP WITH
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THESE SPECIFIC THREATS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
TODAY, AN UPPER LOW, EMBEDDED IN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH, IS EXPECTED TO
GET PICKED UP BY ZONAL FLOW. STRONGER UPPER FLOW REMAINS WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION WHICH IS CAUSING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO LACK
MEANINGFUL WIND ENERGY, BUT WE CONTINUE TO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.8-2" COVERING MOST OF OUR
CWA. OUR TOP ROW OF INDIANA COUNTIES IS IN AN AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.6-1.8".
THIS AFTERNOON, DIURNAL WARMING WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE MLCAPE
INSTABILITY TO BETWEEN 1,300 TO 1,800 J/KG WHICH MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, BUT WE CAN EXPECTED SCATTERED SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSE AN ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT
FOR ANY AREA THAT GETS STUCK UNDER A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.
TONIGHT, WE START TO SEE THE PATTERN CHANGE AS WHAT WAS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BEGIN THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGHER PWATS EASTWARD. THE HIGH PWATS WON'T MAKE IT
OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE THURSDAY MORNING, BUT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING.
PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES FALL. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO EITHER SIDE OF 70.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
THURSDAY, AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORMER UPPER LOW GETS CARRIED OFF
TO THE EAST, PWATS TRY TO DROP BELOW 1.5". THE DAY MIGHT NOT BE
COMPLETELY DRY, BUT ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED THAN THEY HAVE BEEN. AS A
SURFACE LOW BEGINS APPROACHING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST,
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ADDED WAA WILL HELP DRIVE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, CLOSER TO 90 ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65.
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY NIGHT, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND MAKE IT'S WAY
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH SHEAR OVER THE REGION IS
LOW, HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES COULD HELP AN ALREADY DEVELOPED
SYSTEM TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THIS COULD BRING A THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
LATER IN THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A MESSY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP AND DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF PWAT VALUES OVER 2". THERE COULD BE
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT TIMES, BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS EXPECTED TO BE
FLOODING. UNLIKE THE EARLIER ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUICK MOVING, SOME OF THE LATER ACTIVITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD POSSIBLY BE SLOWER MOVING AND SEE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS CAUSING INCREASED CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING. IF WE GET BREAKS IN ROUNDS OF RAIN, THE REGION WILL SEE
LESS ISSUES THAN IF AREAS DON'T GET A BREAK FROM CONTINUOUS SHOWERS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO FINALLY DROP AS
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLEARER SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE TREND FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE AT
THE SURFACE. AREAS THAT SAW RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE MORE
LIKELY TO SEE FOG TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT WILL LIMIT COOLING, LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT TO SOME
DEGREE. PARTS OF THE REGION, MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENTUCKY,
COULD SEE FOG DROP VISIBILITIES INTO IFR LEVELS. THIS COULD HAPPEN
AT LEX, BWG, AND RGA. MORE OPTIMISTIC AT SDF AND HNB WHERE MVFR
COULD HAPPEN, MAINLY AT HNB. LATER IN THE DAY, MORE SCATTERED SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW
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