783
FXUS63 KLMK 081732
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
132 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BRINGING
THREATS OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING,
INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING, COULD DEVELOP
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
* ADDITIONAL THREATS OF GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND COULD DEVELOP WITH
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THESE SPECIFIC THREATS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
LIFTED A LONGER DURATION FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THE HEADLINE WILL START
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND RUN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING. MAY HAVE
TO ADJUST IT SOME ONCE EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE OF RAIN BECOME MORE
CLEAR, BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE ENTIRE AREA HAS A THREAT OF
FLOODING DURING THIS STRETCH. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS STRETCH, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS. SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD INTENSE AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES
INCLUDING MODERATE INSTABILITY, HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, SOME TRAINING
POTENTIAL, AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
TODAY, AN UPPER LOW, EMBEDDED IN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH, IS EXPECTED TO
GET PICKED UP BY ZONAL FLOW. STRONGER UPPER FLOW REMAINS WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION WHICH IS CAUSING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO LACK
MEANINGFUL WIND ENERGY, BUT WE CONTINUE TO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.8-2" COVERING MOST OF OUR
CWA. OUR TOP ROW OF INDIANA COUNTIES IS IN AN AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.6-1.8".
THIS AFTERNOON, DIURNAL WARMING WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE MLCAPE
INSTABILITY TO BETWEEN 1,300 TO 1,800 J/KG WHICH MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, BUT WE CAN EXPECTED SCATTERED SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSE AN ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT
FOR ANY AREA THAT GETS STUCK UNDER A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.
TONIGHT, WE START TO SEE THE PATTERN CHANGE AS WHAT WAS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BEGIN THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGHER PWATS EASTWARD. THE HIGH PWATS WON'T MAKE IT
OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE THURSDAY MORNING, BUT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING.
PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES FALL. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO EITHER SIDE OF 70.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
THURSDAY, AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORMER UPPER LOW GETS CARRIED OFF
TO THE EAST, PWATS TRY TO DROP BELOW 1.5". THE DAY MIGHT NOT BE
COMPLETELY DRY, BUT ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED THAN THEY HAVE BEEN. AS A
SURFACE LOW BEGINS APPROACHING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST,
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ADDED WAA WILL HELP DRIVE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, CLOSER TO 90 ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65.
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY NIGHT, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND MAKE IT'S WAY
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH SHEAR OVER THE REGION IS
LOW, HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES COULD HELP AN ALREADY DEVELOPED
SYSTEM TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THIS COULD BRING A THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
LATER IN THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A MESSY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP AND DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF PWAT VALUES OVER 2". THERE COULD BE
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT TIMES, BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS EXPECTED TO BE
FLOODING. UNLIKE THE EARLIER ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUICK MOVING, SOME OF THE LATER ACTIVITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD POSSIBLY BE SLOWER MOVING AND SEE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS CAUSING INCREASED CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING. IF WE GET BREAKS IN ROUNDS OF RAIN, THE REGION WILL SEE
LESS ISSUES THAN IF AREAS DON'T GET A BREAK FROM CONTINUOUS SHOWERS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO FINALLY DROP AS
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLEARER SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND THE MO/IL/KY STATE LINE WILL
MEANDER EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, TRIGGERING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STORMS
ONGOING, THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THE AIRFIELDS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT
6 HOURS, WHICH WAS CAPTURED IN PROB30 GROUPS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
LOWER (20-30%) CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS BEYOND 00Z. BY AROUND 09Z THURSDAY MORNING, PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA; TEMPO GROUPS WERE
ADDED AT THE TERMINALS WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...JRB
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