272
FXUS63 KLMK 081855
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
255 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BRINGING
THREATS OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING,
INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING, COULD DEVELOP
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
* ADDITIONAL THREATS OF GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND COULD DEVELOP WITH
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THESE SPECIFIC THREATS.
* A DRIER OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
NOW - TONIGHT...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY GET PICKED UP BY THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES
THIS EVENING, AND EXIT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AS AN OPEN
SHORTWAVE. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, PWATS HAVE POOLED INTO THE 2-2.1"
RANGE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PROMOTING SLOW STORM MOVEMENT, AND WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
COMBINED WITH DEEP FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 14K FEET, EFFICIENT HEAVY
RAINERS WILL OCCUR. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HREF LMPP DATA
SUGGESTING ISOLATED POCKETS OF 2-4" AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN 1 TO 2
HOURS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR
SOME AREAS. EXPECT A HANDFUL OF FLOOD ADVISORIES AND A FEW FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD LINGER DEEPER INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
CWA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
HOW DEEP THEY WILL SURVIVE PAST PEAK HEATING.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...
THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND/OR
CONVECTION INDUCED MCV'S TRAVERSING OUR AREA. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. THE END RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RIDING ALONG A NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SORT OF MOSTLY DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS
LINGERING SHOWERS EXIT OUR EAST WITH THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND WE
REMAIN SUBSIDENT FOR A BIT BEHIND THE FEATURE. LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, FOCUS WILL SHIFT UPSTREAM TO THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. SOME SORT OF CLUSTER AND/OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AND THEN WORK INTO OUR AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING. THERE ISN'T A WHOLE LOT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR
STRONG MCS MAINTENANCE (20-25 KNOTS WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW), HOWEVER
IF YOU CAN GET ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL GOING FROM CLUSTERS OF STORMS,
WE DO HAVE SOME LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA INTO
THE OVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTION.
AS A RESULT, WE'LL CARRY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MATCHES WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
NICELY. W/NW CWA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
FARTHER EAST GIVEN THE DIURNAL MINIMUM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
OF A COLD POOL PUSH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL HAVE.
THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS APPROACHING 2"
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND ALREADY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. NOT LOVING THE 08/12Z HREF 48 QPF MAX AND LPMM DATA FOR OUR
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOWS SEVERAL POCKETS OF 3-7" QPF
AMOUNTS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THAT RAINFALL IS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON (WED AFTERNOON), BUT STILL THOSE ARE CONCERNING AMOUNTS AS
THESE PRODUCTS HAVE HANDLED THE "HIGH-END" POTENTIAL QUITE WELL WITH
OUR RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS. FLOOD WATCH WAS LIFTED FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MULTI-WAVE THREAT.
THAT MULTI-WAVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVES
CONTINUE TO EJECT INTO OUR AREA FROM UPSTREAM, LIKELY CREATING
TRAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH EACH WAVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
ONE OF THESE WAVES (INCLUDING THURSDAY NIGHT'S) COULD HAVE ENOUGH OF
A COLD POOL PUSH TO PUSH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH. TWO FAVORABLE THINGS COULD COME FROM THIS.
1.) THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN CWA
TO THE SOUTHERN, OR 2.) THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD SHIFT
FARTHER SOUTH INTO TN. ANY WAVE IN THIS SERIES OF WAVES THAT CAN BE
DODGED WILL BE HELPFUL. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE SAME AREA
GETTING HIT WITH EACH WAVE. FLOODING COULD BECOME QUITE SEVERE IF
THAT SCENARIO PLAYED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING POSSIBILITIES INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WET
CONDITIONS, POSSIBILITIES OF SOME HIGH END RAINFALL TOTALS IN SPOTS,
AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELMING URBAN OR ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OF THE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
START TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA, CUTTING OFF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND THE SHORTWAVE FEED. STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE EASTERN FRINGES TRYING TO WIN OUT
OVER OUR AREA AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWER
CHANCES IN OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME, BUT OVERALL NOT TO THE
MAGNITUDE WE SAW LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
EXPECTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
THURSDAY, AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORMER UPPER LOW GETS CARRIED OFF
TO THE EAST, PWATS TRY TO DROP BELOW 1.5". THE DAY MIGHT NOT BE
COMPLETELY DRY, BUT ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED THAN THEY HAVE BEEN. AS A
SURFACE LOW BEGINS APPROACHING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST,
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ADDED WAA WILL HELP DRIVE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, CLOSER TO 90 ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65.
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY NIGHT, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND MAKE IT'S WAY
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH SHEAR OVER THE REGION IS
LOW, HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES COULD HELP AN ALREADY DEVELOPED
SYSTEM TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THIS COULD BRING A THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
LATER IN THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A MESSY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP AND DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF PWAT VALUES OVER 2". THERE COULD BE
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT TIMES, BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS EXPECTED TO BE
FLOODING. UNLIKE THE EARLIER ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUICK MOVING, SOME OF THE LATER ACTIVITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD POSSIBLY BE SLOWER MOVING AND SEE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS CAUSING INCREASED CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING. IF WE GET BREAKS IN ROUNDS OF RAIN, THE REGION WILL SEE
LESS ISSUES THAN IF AREAS DON'T GET A BREAK FROM CONTINUOUS SHOWERS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO FINALLY DROP AS
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLEARER SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND THE MO/IL/KY STATE LINE WILL
MEANDER EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, TRIGGERING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STORMS
ONGOING, THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THE AIRFIELDS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT
6 HOURS, WHICH WAS CAPTURED IN PROB30 GROUPS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
LOWER (20-30%) CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS BEYOND 00Z. BY AROUND 09Z THURSDAY MORNING, PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA; TEMPO GROUPS WERE
ADDED AT THE TERMINALS WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...JRB
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