223
FXUS63 KLMK 090549
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
149 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BRINGING
THREATS OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING,
INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING, COULD DEVELOP
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
* ADDITIONAL THREATS OF GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND COULD DEVELOP WITH
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THESE SPECIFIC THREATS.
* A DRIER OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
NOW - TONIGHT...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY GET PICKED UP BY THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES
THIS EVENING, AND EXIT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AS AN OPEN
SHORTWAVE. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, PWATS HAVE POOLED INTO THE 2-2.1"
RANGE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PROMOTING SLOW STORM MOVEMENT, AND WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
COMBINED WITH DEEP FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 14K FEET, EFFICIENT HEAVY
RAINERS WILL OCCUR. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HREF LMPP DATA
SUGGESTING ISOLATED POCKETS OF 2-4" AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN 1 TO 2
HOURS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR
SOME AREAS. EXPECT A HANDFUL OF FLOOD ADVISORIES AND A FEW FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD LINGER DEEPER INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
CWA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
HOW DEEP THEY WILL SURVIVE PAST PEAK HEATING.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...
THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND/OR
CONVECTION INDUCED MCV'S TRAVERSING OUR AREA. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. THE END RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RIDING ALONG A NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SORT OF MOSTLY DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS
LINGERING SHOWERS EXIT OUR EAST WITH THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND WE
REMAIN SUBSIDENT FOR A BIT BEHIND THE FEATURE. LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, FOCUS WILL SHIFT UPSTREAM TO THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. SOME SORT OF CLUSTER AND/OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AND THEN WORK INTO OUR AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING. THERE ISN'T A WHOLE LOT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR
STRONG MCS MAINTENANCE (20-25 KNOTS WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW), HOWEVER
IF YOU CAN GET ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL GOING FROM CLUSTERS OF STORMS,
WE DO HAVE SOME LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA INTO
THE OVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTION.
AS A RESULT, WE'LL CARRY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MATCHES WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
NICELY. W/NW CWA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
FARTHER EAST GIVEN THE DIURNAL MINIMUM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
OF A COLD POOL PUSH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL HAVE.
THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS APPROACHING 2"
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND ALREADY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. NOT LOVING THE 08/12Z HREF 48 QPF MAX AND LPMM DATA FOR OUR
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOWS SEVERAL POCKETS OF 3-7" QPF
AMOUNTS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THAT RAINFALL IS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON (WED AFTERNOON), BUT STILL THOSE ARE CONCERNING AMOUNTS AS
THESE PRODUCTS HAVE HANDLED THE "HIGH-END" POTENTIAL QUITE WELL WITH
OUR RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS. FLOOD WATCH WAS LIFTED FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MULTI-WAVE THREAT.
THAT MULTI-WAVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVES
CONTINUE TO EJECT INTO OUR AREA FROM UPSTREAM, LIKELY CREATING
TRAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH EACH WAVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
ONE OF THESE WAVES (INCLUDING THURSDAY NIGHT'S) COULD HAVE ENOUGH OF
A COLD POOL PUSH TO PUSH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH. TWO FAVORABLE THINGS COULD COME FROM THIS.
1.) THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN CWA
TO THE SOUTHERN, OR 2.) THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD SHIFT
FARTHER SOUTH INTO TN. ANY WAVE IN THIS SERIES OF WAVES THAT CAN BE
DODGED WILL BE HELPFUL. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE SAME AREA
GETTING HIT WITH EACH WAVE. FLOODING COULD BECOME QUITE SEVERE IF
THAT SCENARIO PLAYED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING POSSIBILITIES INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WET
CONDITIONS, POSSIBILITIES OF SOME HIGH END RAINFALL TOTALS IN SPOTS,
AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELMING URBAN OR ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OF THE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
START TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA, CUTTING OFF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND THE SHORTWAVE FEED. STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE EASTERN FRINGES TRYING TO WIN OUT
OVER OUR AREA AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWER
CHANCES IN OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME, BUT OVERALL NOT TO THE
MAGNITUDE WE SAW LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
EXPECTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT PLAINS LOOKS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD TOWARD/INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF THAT
RIDGE. FROM WPC'S CLUSTER ANALYSIS, ABOUT 70% OF LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERSHIP BUILDS THE RIDGE SOLIDLY INTO OUR AREA - FAVORING AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND DRY PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK - WHILE THE
REMAINING 30% WOULD SUGGEST A LESS AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT FAVORS NEAR-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ALLOWS DISTURBANCES TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHILE VFR REMAIN THE MAIN FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE FORECAST
THERE ARE A FEW POTENTIAL IMPACTS THAT COULD FOR A PERIOD BRING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES DOWN TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR. ONE OF THOSE BEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF LOW VIS, MAINLY AROUND
BWG AND OTHER PLACES THAT SAW RAIN. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR MAYBE
INCREASED CLOUDS AND A STEADY LIGHT BREEZE BUT THERE ARE
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE REGION WHERE WE ARE SEEING MVFR TO
POTENTIALLY IFR VIS ALREADY DEVELOPING.
ONCE ANY FOG OR CLOUDS MIX OUT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. COULD SEE
SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-5000FT BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
MUCH OF A FACTOR. THE OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT COMES TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING LOOKS TO BE CLOSE TO THE 04-06Z BUT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHAT FORMS UPSTREAM OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
THEN WHEN IT GETS HERE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BTN
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