774
FXUS63 KLMK 091736
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
136 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) MAINLY WEST OF I-65 AND A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) TO THE EAST. STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER
THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MAIN IMPACT GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
* THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN
OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER. SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
* FLOOD WATCH: ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING,
INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING, COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
* ADDITIONAL THREATS OF GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND COULD DEVELOP WITH
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THESE SPECIFIC THREATS.
* A DRIER OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE THREAT LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHLIGHTING THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS WE WILL SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER AREAS THAT ARE STILL SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AND POTENTIAL MCS/MCV WILL WORK
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SAME TIME, A SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTHWARD AND STALL BY THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SETUP A SITUATION WHERE WE WILL HAVE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS THE MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WORK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT: THE BULK OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE
MAINLY DRY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FROM LAST
NIGHT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING
AND NIGHT. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN WORK
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SPC STILL HAS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG I-64
WEST OF I-65 IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) WITH AREAS EAST FROM
LOUISVILLE, BOWLING GREEN TO LEXINGTON IN MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) FOR SEVERE STORMS. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS BETWEEN 20-25KT
AND WE LIKELY HAVE AMBLE MLCAPE AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THAT INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED. WITH
THE COMBINATION OF FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH
WATER LOADING FROM THE HIGH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES THE THREAT
OF GUSTY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE MAIN THREAT.
AS STORMS WORK FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. THAT IS WHY THE SLIGHT RISK IS MORE TO THE
WEST AS IT WILL HAVE BETTER INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH FROM DAYTIME
HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND
NORTH CENTRAL KY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL HAVE LOWER
INSTABILITY THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
AS WE SEE MORE WAVES OF CONVECTION ALONG SIMILAR BOUNDARIES THERE
REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN
ON FRIDAY.
FLASH FLOODING: AS WAS MENTIONED ABOVE, PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR IF NOT ABOVE 2" NOT ONLY TONIGHT BUT FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ADD TO THAT, WE ALREADY HAVE VERY WET AND SATURATED
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND KENTUCKY FROM THE MULTIPLE ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING BACK THE LAST TWO WEEKS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE 3-7
INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE
WEEKEND. THAT IS WHY A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.
WITH THIS SETUP, AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL WORKING
REPEATEDLY OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND SETS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBILITIES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE NOW AND INTO THE WEEKEND, SHARE UPDATED WEATHER
INFORMATION FOR THOSE WHO MAY POTENTIALLY BE MOST IMPACTED AND
REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN! WHEN AND IF YOU COME ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS OR AREAS.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, THE LAST OF THE CONVECTIVE WAVES OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED
BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TO HELP DRY US OUT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
FORECAST TRENDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUE TO REMAIN
DRY AND WARM AS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
(50-70% COVERAGE) WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE ALSO LIKELY
(60-80% CHANCE) TO DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY AROUND 12Z/8AM
EDT FRIDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF BY AROUND THAT
TIME, THOUGH A FEW LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (20-30% CHANCE)
THROUGH THE END OF THE FLIGHT PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...JRB
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