026
FXUS63 KLMK 101121
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* MULTIPLE WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF 3-4+ INCHES RESULTING IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
* FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
* SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG WITH AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
* COULD SEE SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING THAT
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEVERE THREAT HAVE DISSIPATED AND ARE MOVING
INTO EASTERN KY. OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SECOND ROUND CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE IL-KY-MO TRIPIONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF AN INCREASING LLJ THAT IS EXPECTED TO WORK FROM WESTERN KY
EASTWARD ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KY BY DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING. THIS 850 JET CONTINUES TO PUMP IN RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH 2.4" PWAT VALUES LOCATED OVER THE TRIPOINT AND
SPREADING EASTWARD WHERE WE HAVE 2-2.2" PWAT VALUES ALONG AND WEST
OF I-65. AS THIS COMPLEX WORKS EASTWARD, SO WILL THE 2"+ VALUES.
GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT INSTABILITY GRADIENT CURRENT WORKS STRETCHES
FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MEMPHIS, TN CURRENT
THINKING IS THE BULK OF THIS COMPLEX WILL DIVE SOUTH CHASING THE
BETTER INSTABILITY BUT ALSO EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
THE APPROACHING LLJ ACROSS SOUTHERN KY WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY
NORTH ACROSS THE OH RIVER AND NORTHERN KY. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION LIKELY JUST CLIPS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO AN INCH, BUT ANY STORM WE GET WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN AN INCH OR TWO IN AN HOUR DUE TO OUR
HIGH PWAT VALUES.
ONCE THIS SECOND WAVE COMES TO AN END AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER LULL IN ACTIVITY
OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE THIRD WAVE
THAT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND WORK ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL DROP SOUTH AND
STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO THE
AREA RIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWAT VALUES ONCE
AGAIN CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 2.2-2.4" THIS TIME ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE WAS STARTING TO SHOW AGREEMENT OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AND
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL COULD FALL STRETCHING FROM EVANSVILLE,
IN TO BOWLING GREEN, KY OR ALONG THE 165 CORRIDOR WHERE THE
PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING 2 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL WAS AROUND 40-
50 PERCENT. THIS IS GENERALLY THE SAME LOCATION THAT SAW HEAVY
RAINFALL NEARLY 2 WEEKS AGO AROUND THE END OF JUNE, SO SOILS ARE
STILL SATURATED AND IN SOME CASES FLOODING IS STILL ONGOING. IF WE
SEE THESE POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4+ WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EVENT EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WHERE
THE HEAVIEST OF RAINFALL COULD FALL, THERE WAS STILL AROUND A 10-20
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OVER 2 INCHES TO FALL FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA.
CURRENT TIMING IS THE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY SATURDAY. AS THE
SFC BOUNDARY STARTS TO PUSH SOUTH AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
MOVING SOUTH INTO TN ALONG WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY.
WHILE FLASH FLOODING REMAINS THE MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT'S STORM THREAT, THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ARRIVING LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
AMOUNT OF ENERGY AVAILABLE. BUT WITH A STRONG LLJ AND WATER LOADING
DUE TO THE HIGH 2"+ PWAT VALUES THIS MAKES SENSE AND AGREE WITH SPC
PLACEMENT OF THE MARGINAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK IS NOT LOOKING AS
DRY AS IT WAS JUST 24 HOURS AGO. STRONG RIDGING WILL INCREASE OVER
THE CENTRAL US EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. A
CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST AND UNDERCUT
THE RIDGING AS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BUILDS AND PUSHES EASTWARD OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK
WESTWARD OVER KY AND TN MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE WORKING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. RIDGING WILL THEN REAMPLIFY
OVER THE SE CONUS AND TILT BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR OUR FORECAST IS UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWAT VALUES LINGER CLOSE TO 2". IT WILL
REALLY DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE STALL SFC BOUNDARY FROM OVER THE
WEEKEND GETS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS IS THIS
BOUNDARY STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER TN AND BECOMES MORE OF AN INVERTED
SFC TROUGH AS THE CUT OFF LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. IF IT GOES FURTHER SOUTH OUR FORECAST COULD TURN OUT DRIER.
ONCE THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGING
REASSERTS ITSELF FROM THE SE THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A WARM FRONT
ALLOW FOR TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. CONFIDENCE RIGHT
NOW IS NOT VERY HIGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO UPDATE AS WE START
TO SEE MORE AGREEMENT AND POSSIBLY HOW THE DIFFERENT WAVES OF
CONVECTION TODAY AND SATURDAY IMPACT THE SFC BOUNDARY PLACEMENT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WE WILL SEE RAIN START TO DISSIPATE BUT HOLD ON TO MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES FOR PART OF THE MORNING. SHOULD SEE A BREAK WITH VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES RETURNING AND EVEN A BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. IT IS VERY LIKELY WE STAY MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE EVENING. THE ISSUE IS TIMING THE NEXT WAVE OR
POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE WAVES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REALLY DROPS AFTER 00Z AS THERE ARE TOO
MANY TIMING ISSUES WITH THE NEXT COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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