888
FXUS63 KLMK 111101
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
701 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ONGOING FOR THE START OF THE DAY
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THIS MORNING. LOCALLY 1-2+ INCHES
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS LIKELY (50-80% CHANCE) SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO POSE A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING.
* TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS HYDRO AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
WITH A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DUE TO GUSTY AND
POTENTIALLY LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS FROM DOWNBURST. THE HI-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) HAVE STRUGGLED AT TIMES TONIGHT
WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF ONGOING CONVECTION COMING OUT OF IL, MO
AND WESTERN KY. AT TIMES THEIR PLACEMENT OF QPF AND CONVECTION HAVE
BEEN TOO FAR NORTH WHICH IS A KNOWN ISSUE WITH CAMS. WITH THAT IN
MIND WE HAVE TURNED TO LOOKING AT BOTH THE 6HR AND 24HR LPMM
(LOCALIZED PROBABILITY MATCH-MEAN) FROM THE HREF ENS. AND THE NBM
6HR AND 24HR PROBABILITY OF 2+ INCHES TO GET AN IDEA ON WHERE AND
WHEN WE COULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE HAVE BEEN TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF CONCERN EMERGING FROM THIS DATA WITH ONE BEING
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA AROUND OHIO, BUTLER,
LOGAN, SIMPSON, WARREN, BARREN AND ALLEN COUNTIES. THE OTHER HAS
BEEN TO THE NORTH COMING OUT OF SOUTHERN IN INTO NORTH CENTRAL KY
FROM LOUISVILLE TO ELIZABETHTOWN OVER TO LEXINGTON. IN THESE AREAS
THE LPMM HIGHLIGHTS NARROW SWATHS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF 3-4+ INCHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS LINES UP VERY
WELL WITH THE NBM 2"+ PROBABILITY OF 40-60% ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
THIS FIRST WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL WORK
THROUGH THE CWA NOW THROUGH AROUND 12-14Z WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIEST
AND TRAINING BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM JASPER IN DEVELOPING ALONG
A BOUNDARY NEAR LOUISVILLE TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO SOMERSET, KY. THE
OTHER AREA WILL BE ACROSS WARREN, OHIO, BUTLER, LOGAN, SIMPSON ALLEN
COUNTIES WHERE WE COULD SEE PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION HAS HAD A HISTORY OF 1-2
INCHES/HOUR RAINFALL RATE WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AND FLASH
FLOODING. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY LOW, THESE STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA (58 MPH).
ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES AND MOVES OUT LATER THIS MORNING, LIKE WE'VE
SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS BEGIN TO RAMP UP CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL IN STARTS
TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN IN AND THE OHIO RIVER AND A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WORKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THOSE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING,
WE WILL GET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS. SPC WILL PLACE THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) AND
THE REST OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
LATER TODAY. LIKE IT HAS BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, LOCALIZED
GUSTY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT FORM. PWAT VALUES ONCE AGAIN APPROACH 2.00"+ WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING "TALL SKINNY" CAPE PROFILES CONTINUING THE ON
GOING FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
THE BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY GOING
INTO THE EVENING AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR 6Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
***** SUNDAY AND MONDAY *****
STRONG UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL TRY TO BUILD AND EXPAND
EASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LINGERING UPPER/MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM SATURDAY
WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO WEST IN THE FORM OF A WEAK CUTOFF LOW AND BE
SLOW TO WORK ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND PUSH THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO TN ON SUNDAY.
WHILE WE DON'T EXPECT TO BE AS WET AS WE WERE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA (PWAT VALUES GENERALLY
AROUND 1.5") WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AROUND AS WE GO INTO THE START OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
***** TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY *****
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
SOMETIME MIDWEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DISCREPANCIES IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WHEN IT COMES TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
HOW FAST IT EXITS THE REGION. THE SLOWER SOLUTION KEEPS OUR WEATHER
A LITTLE UNSETTLED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
WILL THE FASTER SOLUTION IS A LITTLE DRIER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, WEAK FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY, SLOW MOVING SUMMER STORMS WITH
MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE LIKELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS,
A LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
THOUGH LIMITED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD LIMIT THIS THREAT.
TEMPERATURES START TO WARM TO NEAR SUMMER-TIME NORMALS IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
***** THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND *****
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DESCEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO HOW MUCH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO
PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST, WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. IF THE
TROUGH IS ABLE TO DIG MORE TO THE SOUTH/WEST, IT WOULD BRING A FRONT
DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAT WOULD INCREASE STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A MORE RESILIENT UPPER RIDGE WOULD
SUPPORT WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER OVER THE SAME PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES CIG
AND VIS THROUGH OUT THE MORNING AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A LULL AROUND 16Z/17 BEFORE WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS
INDIANA AND POTENTIALLY TO THE SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN KY. THE
CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING AND WHEN AND WHERE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. THIS
MAKES THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOW.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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