252
FXUS63 KLMK 121113
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
713 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2+ INCHES CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
* UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
OVER KY.
* MAINLY DRY AND WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
DAILY AFTERNOON CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING...
ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW COULD BE SEEN ON KLVX RADAR
OVER HANCOCK, DAVIESS AND OHIO COUNTIES WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM BRECKINRIDGE, TO
HARDIN THEN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BLUEGRASS PKY OVER TO MADISON
COUNTY AND RICHMOND, KY. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND OTHER CAMS KEEP
THIS BAND NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WHILE WE HAVE SEEN SOME WEAKENING WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE HAVE BEEN RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR WITH SOME LOCALLY AT TIMES OVER 3" INCHES. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS
SHOWS HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2.0" AND ALL OF THIS IS INTERACTING WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY TRYING TO DROP SOUTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS AND POTENTIAL DURATION OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DECIDED TO EXTEND PORTION OF THE FLOOD WATCH THE WAS EXPECTED TO
EXPIRE OVERNIGHT TO 12Z. CONCERN IS THERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ALONG THIS BAND IF WE CONTINUE TO HOLD ON
TO CURRENT RAINFALL INTENSITY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER AROUND
THE KY/TN BORDER DURING DAY. BEHIND THESE FEATURES, LIGHT NE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH AND LOWERING PWAT VALUES FOR AREAS IN SOUTHERN IN AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KY. JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN 1.8 TO 2.0" ALLOWING FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE
SEVERE THREAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER BUT WITH WITH THE HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND THE LOCATIONS OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO SATURATED GROUND. FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KY UNTIL THIS EVENING. ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL START TO DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATER TONIGHT.
MONDAY...
AS WE GO INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW AND THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN SUNDAY
BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. THE CUT-OFF LOW ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
ENOUGH TO IGNITE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WET AS IT HAS BEEN OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD DEVELOPING A
REX BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW WORKS WEST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION PROVIDING A
MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.8-2.0" AS THE CLOSE LOW OVER THE PLAINS
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 WE COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE TYPE CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON. WHILE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS
PAST WEEKEND WITH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
FROM SLOW MOVING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN KY
TODAY AND THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BWG, LEX AND RGA HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING A
THUNDERSTORM LATER TODAY BUT SDF WAS A BIG MARGINAL BUT DECIDED TO
GO AHEAD AND PUT IN A PROB30. CURRENTLY WE HAVE SOME AREAS OF MAINLY
MVFR CIG AND A FEW IFR SPOTS BUT THEY HAVE BEEN BOUNCING IN AND OUT
OF VARIOUS FLIGHT CATEGORIES ALL MORNING THIS HAS MADE FOR A
SLIGHTLY LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST.
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT CIG TO
VFR AND THAT WILL MAINLY BE THE FLIGHT CATEGORIES, THERE COULD BE
SOME MVFR TO IFR CIG SOUTH TOWARDS BWG NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KYZ027-
028-035>037-039>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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