198
FXUS63 KLMK 122340
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY. SLOW MOVING STORMS CAN STILL DROP
ADDITIONAL 1-2+" OF RAIN IN ISOLATED AREAS.
* CUT-OFF LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MONDAY IN OUR EASTERN COMMUNITIES, WITH A LIMITED, MARGINAL FLASH
FLOODING RISK IN ISOLATED AREAS.
* THERE IS A WARMER AND DRIER TREND IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
===== SUNDAY - MONDAY =====
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING UNTIL JUST
AFTER SUNSET. WEAK FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMNS ABOVE
KY HAVE THANKFULLY LIMITED ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL TO JUST THE USUAL
CONCERNS WITH SUMMERTIME CONVECTION, BEING LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EARLIER THIS MORNING, SEVERAL FLOOD PRODUCTS
WERE ISSUED AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED IN A FEW AREAS THROUGH
CENTRAL KY. DESPITE THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT, PWATS OF 1.9-2.0", SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE 925-850MB
LAYER, AND A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KY WILL CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY THE SLOW MOVEMENT THESE STORMS HAVE TAKEN SO FAR.
ALTOGETHER, A GENERAL <0.5" WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
SOUTHERN IN COMMUNITIES REMAINING DRY. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR KY,
THOUGH THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST FLOODING POTENTIAL IS, WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1-3" IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE STAGNANT, SLOW MOVING
STORMS.
AFTER THE STORMS DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN IN AND AT LEAST THIN EVERYWHERE ELSE. ISOLATED
AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM DUE TO THIS PARTIAL CLEARING, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW (~20%). LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER
60S TO ISOLATED LOW 70S.
MONDAY MORNING BEGINS CALM WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES IN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER, AS THE CUT-OFF
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING STORMS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD, ITS SLOW-
MOVING PROGRESS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR US TO DRY OUT COMPLETELY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, POPS INCREASE FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. CLOSER TOWARDS THE OHIO, LOWER PWATS
WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CUT-OFF LOW, WHERE SOUTHERN IN
AND THE LOUISVILLE AREA WILL LIKELY (80-90%) REMAIN DRY. IN A NE TO
SW ORIENTED AREA, STORMS WILL REFIRE AGAIN THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THE WEAK SHEAR ALOFT. FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THE STORMS WILL BE MUCH LESS
COMPARED TO TODAY'S COVERAGE, MEANING ANY FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. MORE COMMUNITIES WILL REMAIN DRY, THOUGH
ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD RANGE 1-3",
BUT MOST WILL SEE <0.25" OR REMAIN DRY. AS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION DOES, STORMS WANE AFTER SUNSET AND EVERYONE DRIES OUT
AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
===== TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND =====
THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH AND WEST MOVING WESTWARD
AND WILL EVENTUALLY A REX BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US. IT
STILL MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPAWN NEW STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH WE ARE KEEPING POPS LOW ~30% ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
COUNTIES WITH TN. PWATS ARE HIGHEST THERE AROUND 1.7", THOUGH ANY
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS SLOWLY, A HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
EVERYONE ELSE DRY NORTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
THE SYNOPTIC REX BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US WON'T ALLOW
OUR WEATHER TO CHANGE MUCH IT SEEMS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHOULD THE HIGH TO OUR WEST RETAIN ITS STRENGTH, WE MAY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THEN. LREF GUIDANCE ON THE 500MB HEIGHTS COMPARED TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES REACH THE 95TH PERCENTILE,
WHICH MEANS THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING DRIER. FOR EACH
OF THESE THREE DAYS, HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S STILL. EVENTUALLY, THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN AND A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US MAY BRING IN BURSTS OF SHORTWAVES TO
INCREASE GENERAL STORM CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS QUICKLY DECREASING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING, WITH BWG BEING THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT COULD
EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT, THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR
RGA AFTER 08Z THAT WOULD RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, THOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LEX, RGA, AND
BWG WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF EXPERIENCING SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
PACKAGE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ078-081-082.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...KDW/BEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page