808
FXUS63 KLMK 130530
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
130 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY. SLOW MOVING STORMS CAN STILL DROP
ADDITIONAL 1-2+" OF RAIN IN ISOLATED AREAS.
* CUT-OFF LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MONDAY IN OUR EASTERN COMMUNITIES, WITH A LIMITED, MARGINAL FLASH
FLOODING RISK IN ISOLATED AREAS.
* THERE IS A WARMER AND DRIER TREND IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
===== SUNDAY - MONDAY =====
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING UNTIL JUST
AFTER SUNSET. WEAK FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMNS ABOVE
KY HAVE THANKFULLY LIMITED ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL TO JUST THE USUAL
CONCERNS WITH SUMMERTIME CONVECTION, BEING LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EARLIER THIS MORNING, SEVERAL FLOOD PRODUCTS
WERE ISSUED AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED IN A FEW AREAS THROUGH
CENTRAL KY. DESPITE THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT, PWATS OF 1.9-2.0", SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE 925-850MB
LAYER, AND A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KY WILL CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY THE SLOW MOVEMENT THESE STORMS HAVE TAKEN SO FAR.
ALTOGETHER, A GENERAL <0.5" WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
SOUTHERN IN COMMUNITIES REMAINING DRY. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR KY,
THOUGH THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST FLOODING POTENTIAL IS, WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1-3" IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE STAGNANT, SLOW MOVING
STORMS.
AFTER THE STORMS DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN IN AND AT LEAST THIN EVERYWHERE ELSE. ISOLATED
AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM DUE TO THIS PARTIAL CLEARING, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW (~20%). LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER
60S TO ISOLATED LOW 70S.
MONDAY MORNING BEGINS CALM WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES IN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER, AS THE CUT-OFF
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING STORMS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD, ITS SLOW-
MOVING PROGRESS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR US TO DRY OUT COMPLETELY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, POPS INCREASE FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. CLOSER TOWARDS THE OHIO, LOWER PWATS
WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CUT-OFF LOW, WHERE SOUTHERN IN
AND THE LOUISVILLE AREA WILL LIKELY (80-90%) REMAIN DRY. IN A NE TO
SW ORIENTED AREA, STORMS WILL REFIRE AGAIN THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THE WEAK SHEAR ALOFT. FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THE STORMS WILL BE MUCH LESS
COMPARED TO TODAY'S COVERAGE, MEANING ANY FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. MORE COMMUNITIES WILL REMAIN DRY, THOUGH
ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD RANGE 1-3",
BUT MOST WILL SEE <0.25" OR REMAIN DRY. AS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION DOES, STORMS WANE AFTER SUNSET AND EVERYONE DRIES OUT
AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
===== TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND =====
THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH AND WEST MOVING WESTWARD
AND WILL EVENTUALLY A REX BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US. IT
STILL MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPAWN NEW STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH WE ARE KEEPING POPS LOW ~30% ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
COUNTIES WITH TN. PWATS ARE HIGHEST THERE AROUND 1.7", THOUGH ANY
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS SLOWLY, A HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
EVERYONE ELSE DRY NORTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
THE SYNOPTIC REX BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US WON'T ALLOW
OUR WEATHER TO CHANGE MUCH IT SEEMS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHOULD THE HIGH TO OUR WEST RETAIN ITS STRENGTH, WE MAY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THEN. LREF GUIDANCE ON THE 500MB HEIGHTS COMPARED TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES REACH THE 95TH PERCENTILE,
WHICH MEANS THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING DRIER. FOR EACH
OF THESE THREE DAYS, HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S STILL. EVENTUALLY, THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN AND A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US MAY BRING IN BURSTS OF SHORTWAVES TO
INCREASE GENERAL STORM CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTH AND A
SLOW DEPARTING SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TN WILL HAVE THE MAIN
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TO THE NORTH FOR
SITES SDF/LEX/HNB DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE FOR LEX IF
WE SEE SOME THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS TO EVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG. CURRENTLY THERE WASN'T A LOT OF MODEL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SCENARIO BUT OBSERVATIONS TO THE EAST SUGGEST IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL. FOR NOW, DECIDED TO GO WITH CONSISTENCY AND WILL ADJUST IF
NEEDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOUR. GIVEN BWG
LOCATION IN RESPECT TO THE DEPARTING SFC LOW, DECIDED TO PUT IN A
TEMPO FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOWERING CIGS AND VIS TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THINK VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HNB, SDF AND LEX THE AREAS THAT
HAVE QUESTIONS ARE BWG AND RGA AS THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT CURRENTLY HIGH DID NOT GO WITH ANY PROB30.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY COULD GET SOME LATE DAY MIXING
THAT COULD INCREASE WINDS OUT OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A FEW
HOURS OF WINDS AROUND 10KT AND GUSTS APPROACHING 20KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...BTN
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