079
FXUS63 KLMK 130616
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
216 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LINGERING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MONDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS AND OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION.
* A WELCOME PATTERN CHANGE: MAINLY DRY WITH NORMAL MID JULY HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY WITH LOW END AFTERNOON CHANCES OF ISOLATED
RAIN AND STORMS EACH DAY.
* HOT AND STEAMY: HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 98-103 WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WE WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF A PATTERN CHANGE AS GO INTO THE START OF
THE WEEK. WHILE NOT AS WET AND ACTIVITY AS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
THERE ARE STILL LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER OVER INTO THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING CUT-OFF LOW THAT
WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST OVER THE TN VALLEY DURING
THE DAY TODAY, OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE
MODELS WANTING TO TAKE THIS CUT-OFF LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC
LOW FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS NEW SOLUTION VERIFIES THEN WE COULD SEE A
MUCH DRIER FORECAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN OUR GRIDS. IF WE DO
EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY, WHILE THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER, COULD STILL SEE PWAT
VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.6" TO 1.7" LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM PAST HEAVY RAINFALL THE ONE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS BETWEEN 1" TO 1.5". THIS MEAN ANY SHOWER OR
STORM THAT COULD FORM LATER TODAY WOULD POTENTIALLY POSE A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING RISK.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL BE MAINLY DRY TODAY AS SFC HIGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES DROPS SOUTHWARD PROVIDING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. IT WILL ALSO BE
A LITTLE WARMER AS TEMPERATURES GET CLOSER TO MID JULY NORMALS IN
THE UPPER 80S.
BY TONIGHT, THE DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK OVER CENTRAL KY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINS AND THE SATURATED GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
A WELCOMING PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE
ACTIVE WEATHER WE'VE ENDURED THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. CUT-OFF LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND DEVELOP A REX BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE WEEK.
IN RESPONSE, AN NW TO SE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND SETTLE IN OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BEFORE DRIFTING FURTHER SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH NORMAL MID JULY HEAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
AS THE CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO WORK WESTWARD IT WILL DRAW RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INCREASE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 70S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AND KEEP LOW END AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (10-20 PERCENT) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW 90S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 98-
103 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON, JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTH AND A
SLOW DEPARTING SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TN WILL HAVE THE MAIN
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TO THE NORTH FOR
SITES SDF/LEX/HNB DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE FOR LEX IF
WE SEE SOME THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS TO EVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG. CURRENTLY THERE WASN'T A LOT OF MODEL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SCENARIO BUT OBSERVATIONS TO THE EAST SUGGEST IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL. FOR NOW, DECIDED TO GO WITH CONSISTENCY AND WILL ADJUST IF
NEEDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOUR. GIVEN BWG
LOCATION IN RESPECT TO THE DEPARTING SFC LOW, DECIDED TO PUT IN A
TEMPO FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOWERING CIGS AND VIS TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THINK VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HNB, SDF AND LEX THE AREAS THAT
HAVE QUESTIONS ARE BWG AND RGA AS THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT CURRENTLY HIGH DID NOT GO WITH ANY PROB30.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY COULD GET SOME LATE DAY MIXING
THAT COULD INCREASE WINDS OUT OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A FEW
HOURS OF WINDS AROUND 10KT AND GUSTS APPROACHING 20KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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