697
FXUS63 KLMK 131742
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
142 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* LINGERING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MONDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS AND OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION.
* A WELCOME PATTERN CHANGE: MAINLY DRY WITH NORMAL MID JULY HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY WITH LOW END AFTERNOON CHANCES OF ISOLATED
RAIN AND STORMS EACH DAY.
* HOT AND STEAMY: HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 98-103 WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WE WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF A PATTERN CHANGE AS GO INTO THE START OF
THE WEEK. WHILE NOT AS WET AND ACTIVITY AS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
THERE ARE STILL LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER OVER INTO THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING CUT-OFF LOW THAT
WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST OVER THE TN VALLEY DURING
THE DAY TODAY, OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE
MODELS WANTING TO TAKE THIS CUT-OFF LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC
LOW FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS NEW SOLUTION VERIFIES THEN WE COULD SEE A
MUCH DRIER FORECAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN OUR GRIDS. IF WE DO
EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY, WHILE THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER, COULD STILL SEE PWAT
VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.6" TO 1.7" LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM PAST HEAVY RAINFALL THE ONE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS BETWEEN 1" TO 1.5". THIS MEAN ANY SHOWER OR
STORM THAT COULD FORM LATER TODAY WOULD POTENTIALLY POSE A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING RISK.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL BE MAINLY DRY TODAY AS SFC HIGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES DROPS SOUTHWARD PROVIDING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. IT WILL ALSO BE
A LITTLE WARMER AS TEMPERATURES GET CLOSER TO MID JULY NORMALS IN
THE UPPER 80S.
BY TONIGHT, THE DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK OVER CENTRAL KY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINS AND THE SATURATED GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
A WELCOMING PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE
ACTIVE WEATHER WE'VE ENDURED THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. CUT-OFF LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND DEVELOP A REX BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE WEEK.
IN RESPONSE, AN NW TO SE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND SETTLE IN OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BEFORE DRIFTING FURTHER SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH NORMAL MID JULY HEAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
AS THE CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO WORK WESTWARD IT WILL DRAW RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INCREASE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 70S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AND KEEP LOW END AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (10-20 PERCENT) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW 90S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 98-
103 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON, JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
LOW STRATUS HAS MOSTLY LIFTED AND THINNED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND THIN THROUGH THE EVENING,
BEFORE BECOMING CLEAR. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OVER THE SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY, LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AND VIS MAY BECOME REDUCED.
THIS IS HINTED IN THE TAFS AND MORE CLARITY MAY BE FOUND IN THE NEXT
TAF ISSUANCE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...SRW
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