854
FXUS63 KLMK 131852
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
252 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
* HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
RAIN AND STORMS EACH DAY.
* HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 98-103 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
LOW STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOSTLY LIFTED AND THINNED THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE A BIT EACH
DAY. A WEAK CUTOFF LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHICH
WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S.
GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION, SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW, BUT AMPLE MOISTURE AND LINGERING VORTICITY WILL ALLOW
LOW POPS (<10%) TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, WHICH WILL BRING PEAK
HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S. WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
VERY LIGHT WINDS, THIS WILL FEEL HOT AND MUGGY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
DROP SOUTH AND SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S FOR THIS TIME.
HOTTEST DAYS OF THIS WEEK LOOK TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT
RELIEF FROM HEAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
LOW STRATUS HAS MOSTLY LIFTED AND THINNED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND THIN THROUGH THE EVENING,
BEFORE BECOMING CLEAR. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OVER THE SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY, LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AND VIS MAY BECOME REDUCED.
THIS IS HINTED IN THE TAFS AND MORE CLARITY MAY BE FOUND IN THE NEXT
TAF ISSUANCE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
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