559
FXUS63 KLMK 141053
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND
STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
* HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
RAIN AND STORMS EACH DAY. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY.
* HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 98-103 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
* MORE DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A REX BLOCK UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES PLACE TODAY, WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL LINGER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS WELL, LEADING TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD FOR OUR AREA, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A LOW-END CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM TO SNEAK
INTO OUR FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KY COUNTIES ALONG THE TN BORDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON BOTH FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT
DO POP UP LATER TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND MOSTLY UNORGANIZED DUE
TO THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LARGE AMOUNT OF CAPE TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG HEATING (SBCAPE > 2000
J/KG), AND CAM SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE PROFILE
TO SUPPORT HIGH DCAPES. IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP A TALL ENOUGH
CORE AND BE SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED, THERE COULD BE UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG
OF DCAPE TO SUPPORT A LOCALIZED WIND THREAT. THE ISOLATE STORM
THREAT ENDS BY 00-01Z TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AGAIN
TOMORROW ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JULY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE AREA. TOMORROW'S
HIGH WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD.
HOWEVER, HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE DEPARTED TOO FAR FROM THE AMBIENT
TEMPS FOR TODAY, THOUGH SOME HEAT INDICES NEAR 100F WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
===== THURSDAY - FRIDAY =====
VERY WEAK FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING STRETCHING ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WE
COULD SEE A VERY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NE,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND RAIN CHANCES. THURSDAY
FEATURES A 30-40% CHANCE, BUT THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AS
A SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE BRINGS SOME VORTICITY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. POPS FOR FRIDAY PEAK AROUND 60% FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY DO NOT SHOW MORE THAN 15KTS IN THE ENTIRE
COLUMN, BUT INDICATE PLENTY OF CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES FOR SOME POP-UP
STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A
SIMILAR FORECAST WITH NEARLY STATIONARY POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
SHOULD BE MORE PRECIP COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY WITH A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FORCING. PWATS WILL BE QUITE HIGH STILL, BETWEEN 1.8-2",
SO EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
HOT TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR LATE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S FOR BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER, WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE 70S, THAT WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 FOR BOTH DAYS
AND IN MOST LOCATIONS. NBM PROBS CURRENTLY SHOW AT LEAST A 50%
CHANCE OF SFC DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN 75F THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
I-65.
===== WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK =====
A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BLOCK ANY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE US, AND WILL RESULT IN THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW TO SINK INTO
A STAGNANT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US. THIS
WILL SUPPORT DAILY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES ACROSS
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME REMAIN RIGHT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS THIS WEEKEND LINGER INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S, BUT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MID-80S POSSIBLE
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
PLEASANT FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT BWG AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, BUT OTHERWISE THEY SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS FROM THE ENE TODAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
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