185
FXUS63 KLMK 151744
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
144 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TODAY, THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORM MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
* SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY FOR
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
* RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SLOW-MOVING
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, LIGHTNING,
AND GUSTY WINDS.
* OUTSIDE OF STORMS, HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE 97-103 DEGREE
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MINOR TO MODERATE
HEAT RISK IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFFECTING VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
IT IS A WARM START TO THE DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE KY MESONET NETWORK, AND SDF
CURRENTLY SITTING AT 79F. WHILE WE'LL LIKELY SEE TEMPS FALL A FEW
MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE, THIS IS A SIGN FOR TEMPS TODAY TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MANY
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WK/BG PKWYS.
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE AS A SFC LOW SITS ACROSS THE GULF STATES
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL LIMIT OVERALL STORM CHANCES AGAIN TODAY, BUT A LOWER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO FIRE OFF SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TN,
AND SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KY. THERE IS AN ISOLATED
CHANCE FOR A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KY, INCLUDING
BOWLING GREEN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY, HIGH
PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES, THOUGH VERY WEAK SHEAR AS THE WIND
PROFILES REMAIN UNDER 30KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. ANY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW MOVING STORM MOTION, THOUGH
WILL GENERALLY HAVE A SE TO NW PROGRESSION. EFFICIENT RAIN RATES
WILL BE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A MICROBURST PROBABILITY AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
A SIMILAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, THOUGH WITH MORE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION COVERAGE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN SOME. WE'LL BE DEALING WITH NEAR 2 INCH PWATS AGAIN, ALONG
WITH STRONG HEATING TO ALLOW MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND LINGERING
WEAK SHEAR TO PROMOTE SLOW MOVERS. POPS FOR TOMORROW VARY BETWEEN 20-
40%, WITH THE BLUEGRASS AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF STAYING DRY.
HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S,
THOUGH WITH THE SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID-70S, WE'LL LIKELY SEE
HEAT INDICES APPROACH 98-102F IN MANY AREAS, RESULTING IN MINOR TO
MODERATE HEAT RISK - SUGGESTING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS AMONG VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
===== FRIDAY - SATURDAY =====
THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES OF THE WEEK ARRIVE FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE REGION
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO BE IN A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS, LIKELY SEEING
PWATS AROUND OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES, AND SFC DEWPOINTS PUSHING INTO
THE MID 70S. THE LREF MEAN ENSEMBLE HAS A 75F DEWPOINT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH AN ENSEMBLE MINIMUM OF 71F, WHICH ADDS EVEN MORE
CONFIDENCE IN VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. FORECAST TEMPS ARE SET TO PEAK
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WHICH WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AROUND
100F WITH THE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INDICATE LARGE CAPE
PROFILES DUE TO THE STRONG DIURNAL HEATING, ALONG WITH VERY WEAK FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN, POTENTIALLY LESS THAN 20KTS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY WEAK SHEAR PARAMETERS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS, LEADING
TO PULSE CONVECTION. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT TO
BOOST DCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. ALL THAT SAID, EXPECT SLOW-MOVING,
TORRENTIAL RAIN RATES AND MICROBURSTS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE
NEARLY STATIONARY MOVEMENTS COULD ALSO RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS WELL, THOUGH THE
FORCING COULD BE A BIT STRONGER AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. WE'LL SEE PULSE CONVECTION LIGHT UP ON RADAR
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A LARGELY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH WEAK SHEAR.
===== SUNDAY - NEXT WEEK =====
THE DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS IT
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP INFLUENCE
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SITS
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS IN/OH.
BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES, AND EVENTUALLY "COOLER" TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DIURNAL CU AROUND 4KFT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PATCHY FOG
BY 08-12Z; THIS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST VIA A TEMPO GROUP AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE (20-30%), I.E., HNB, LEX,
AND RGA.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...JRB
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