961
FXUS63 KLMK 161000
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
600 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW MOVING
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
* RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SLOW-MOVING
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, LIGHTNING,
AND GUSTY WINDS.
* OUTSIDE OF STORMS, HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE 97-103 DEGREE
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODERATE HEAT RISK
IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFFECTING VULNERABLE POPULATIONS SENSITIVE TO
HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
IT IS ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY START TO THE DAY, WITH KY MESONET
STATIONS REPORTING MID 70S ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH, AND SDF SITTING
AT 80F EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DAYS, THOUGH WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING, THAT WILL PROMOTE AN
INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. STRONG
HEATING WILL RESULT IN TEMPS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
ONCE AGAIN, WITH A HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 70S. THIS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN THE 97-103F RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFFECTING
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS SENSITIVE TO HEAT, BUT ESPECIALLY THOSE
WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATER
TODAY, WHICH WILL ADD FORCING TO THE REGION FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
INITIATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE OUR DIURNAL HEATING COULD LEAD
TO SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG. HOWEVER, WE CONTINUE TO SEE
VERY WEAK FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, REALLY NO MORE THAN 15-
20KTS, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WEAK SHEAR PARAMETERS AND
VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. HIGH PWATS, COMBINED WITH THE HIGH CAPE
VALUES, WILL ENCOURAGE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
THOUGH THE LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION LESS ORGANIZED.
DCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG POSE A MICROBURST/LOCALIZED WIND THREAT,
THOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW WELL ANY STORM CAN ORGANIZE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH HIGH PWATS WILL SUPPORT
LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL RAIN RATES, AND WHILE IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT
TODAY, SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME VERY LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH AS SUGGESTES BY THE HREF LPMM. POPS FOR TODAY
RANGE BETWEEN 20-40%, WITH PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS (NORTHEAST OF
LEXINGTON) POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY TODAY.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STALLED
ACROSS NORTHERN KY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TOMORROW.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE, WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. PWATS PEAK TOMORROW OVER 2 INCHES AS THE THETA-E RIDGE
CENTERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE TORRENTIAL RAIN AND SLOWER MOVING
STORMS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW HAVE BEEN
NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM NBM, BUT STILL EXPECT MAINLY UPPER 80S.
HOWEVER, WITH THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
AGAIN BE NEAR 100 IN MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
===== SATURDAY - SUNDAY =====
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURES RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST, WITH A STRONGER
SINKING SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW OVER
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. A SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, AND ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS IS
SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH. WE WILL BE WITHIN A THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PW
AIRMASS WITH DIURNAL HEATING FAVORING CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES REMAIN THE NORM FOR SATURDAY, WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A HIGH CAPE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS
SCATTERED STORMS BLOSSOM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK FLOW CONTINUES TO PROMOTE SLOWER STORM MOTIONS, WITH TORRENTIAL
RAIN RATES FAVORING A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH, AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE PARALLEL TO THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LOCAL FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY, THOUGH WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE HIGHER PWATS START THE
DECREASE SOME.
STILL EXPECT A HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S BOTH DAYS, AND SFC DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE 70S.
FORECAST DEWPOINTS ON SATURDAY COULD BE CLOSE TO 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD HEAT INDICES IN THE 98-102
RANGE ON SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE WK/BG PKWYS.
===== NEXT WEEK =====
WE'LL BE IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, SO THAT
SHOULD YIELD DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN ACROSS CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN ANOTHER FROPA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY, BUT
THE FROPA COULD BRING A MUCH NEEDED COOL DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AS WE GET
SOME "COOLER" AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR TO FILTER IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY COULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING COULD CAUSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR AT BWG, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.
CHANCES INCREASE FOR SCATTERED -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT LEX AND RGA. BY THIS EVENING, ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING, LEADING TO A DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL
VARY FROM THE WSW TO S DEPENDING ON THE TERMINAL.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
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