067
FXUS63 KLMK 171739
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
139 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED STORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN AXIS OF A
SHORTWAVE BRINGING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN AREAS EAST OF I-65.
* RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.25-0.75" FROM WIDESPREAD STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED 3+" POSSIBLE, BRINGING A
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
* A LINE OF STORMS BRINGING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN-SOUTHERN IN MOVES IN SATURDAY EVENING
NEAR 7-9 PM THAT WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL KY
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
===== FRIDAY - SATURDAY =====
DESPITE A LONE SHOWER IN CLARK COUNTY, KY, CONDITIONS ARE QUIET WITH
CLEARING SKIES. FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS QUIET WITH PATCHY FOG,
ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS THOUGH FOG SHOULD MIX AWAY QUICKLY
WITH THE SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW TO UPPER
70S QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S IN THE AFTERNOON.
DURING THIS TIME, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN A BROKEN
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STORMS THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST.
TIMING WILL BE NEAR 17-19Z IN THE WEST, THOUGH A SPOTTY STORM
FURTHER EAST AT THIS TIME CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH RANGING 1.9-2.1+", ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. IN OUR
WESTERN CWA, STORMS WILL ARRIVE EARLIER IN THE DAY, MOVING THROUGH
BEFORE THE BEST INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING IS REACHED.
HOWEVER, AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE BROKEN CLUSTERS OF STORMS. DESPITE THE WEAK
SHEAR ALOFT, MLCAPE AND VERY HIGH PWATS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE WET
DOWNBURSTS BRINGING DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES IN ISOLATED PLACES. SPC HAS PLACED
A MARGINAL RISK FOR THESE CONCERNS IN THESE AREAS EAST OF I-65
INCLUDING LOUISVILLE. FLASH FLOODING IS ANOTHER CONCERN CONSIDERING
THE ELEVATED PWATS AND ANY PRECEDING STORMS OCCURRING BEFORE THE
AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES DUMPING HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN SHORT
PERIODS. HREF 6HR LPMM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ISOLATED AREAS OF
3-4+" IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE THAN ONE DOWNPOUR
FROM STORMS, THOUGH GENERALLY, THE WHOLE CWA HAS A 50-75% CHANCE
TO RECEIVE 0.25-0.75" OF RAIN BY THE EVENING. AROUND 8-10 PM,
STORMS END IN THE EAST WITH ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY.
PATCHY FOG RETURNS SATURDAY MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH IN
THE LOW 70S WITH LOWS NOT MUCH WARMER IF AT ALL. SKIES REMAIN
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS RETURNING AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. PWATS ALONG WITH THE SAME STAGNANT, HUMID AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN HIGH NEAR 2.0". SPOTTY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
BRINGING ANOTHER LOW END THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH MOST STORM COVERAGE WON'T OCCUR
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTH, A LINE OF STORMS ALONG
THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, FLASH
FLOODING, AND LIGHTNING. THE STRONGEST SHEAR SEEMS TO REMAIN OUT OF
THE CWA, BUT 0-6KM SHEAR FROM HREF GUIDANCE APPROACHES ~20KTS
NEAREST JEFFERSON COUNTY, IN. AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT RISK WAS
ISSUED ALONG OUR NORTHEAST CWA BORDER. TIMING SEEMS TO BE THE
GREATEST LIMITING FACTOR AS STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA UNTIL AFTER 8PM, WITH THE BEST DAYTIME HEATING HAVING
ALREADY WANED BY THEN. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD, CONTINUED NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL LESSEN THE SEVERE
RISK, ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BEFORE THE
STORMS ARRIVE. HEAT INDICES WILL MAKE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
UNCOMFORTABLE REACHING 100 BOTH AFTERNOONS FROM THE ELEVATED
HUMIDITY PRESENT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO CLEAR THE
NORTHERN CWA, PWATS WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST IN NORTHERN COMMUNITIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
===== SUNDAY - THURSDAY =====
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, ALBEIT A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM HIGHER
HEAT INDICES IN THE NORTHERN CWA, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND HEAT INDICES
WILL BE NEAR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
BEING A TRAILING COLD FRONT, THE FRONT MAY NOT ACTUALLY CLEAR
SOUTHERN COMMUNITIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED NEAR 1.8", MEANING SCATTERED STORMS MAY RETURN IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM A WEST-TO-EAST AREA SOUTH OF E-TOWN ACCORDING TO
LATEST LREF GUIDANCE TRENDS. GIVEN THE PATTERN, POPS OF 50-70%
WILL CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS WITH THE SAME RISKS AS AFTERNOONS
BEFORE BEING LIGHTING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW-END FLASH FLOODING
FROM WEAK FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING STORMS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY
UNTIL THEY RAIN THEMSELVES OUT.
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FROM A HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT LOW
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL INCREASE HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 100 AGAIN
ALONG WITH HIGHS NEAR 90. A SPOTTY STORM IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ALTHOUGH
WITH THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC LIFT, COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
FOCUS SHOULD BE GIVEN TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENTIALLY
STRONG LOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DRAWS CLOSER BRINGING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE AREA. WITH SURFACE TO 500MB SHEAR NEAR 30KTS OR
MORE, AND INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE, ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA IS POSSIBLE THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EXACT TIMING, LOCATION AND STRENGTH
OF THESE STORMS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR WITH THE FRONT
WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERE WEATHER TYPE AS WELL. FOR NOW, STORM
CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AGAIN.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE PATTERN SUGGESTS NW FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING LOW BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND THOUGH MORE TIME WILL BE
GIVEN AS THOSE DAYS APPROACH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
TCU HAS FORMED OVER THE REGION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
PRESENT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AS THE SUN SETS AND INSTABILITY WANES, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE. IN STORMS, RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AND LIGHTNING MAY BE
FREQUENT. INDIVIDUAL PULSE STORMS WILL FORM AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 30-
40 MINUTES. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME CALM TO LIGHT. FOG
FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
WEST AROUND 8-11KTS AND GUSTING UP TO 22KTS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...SRW
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