910
FXUS63 KLMK 211454
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1054 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING, WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD, BUT A FEW TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65.
* CALM WEATHER MOVES IN WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY THIS WEEK.
* RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
*** TODAY AND TONIGHT ***
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
ONTARIO IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT SW THROUGH NORTHERN IL INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LINE, PWATS ARE BETWEEN 1.5" TO
2" ACROSS THE REGION. AS STORMS START TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON,
PWATS COULD REACH 2.5". SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES CAN EXPECT STORMS TO
START MOVING IN EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH MORE DISCRETE STORMS
INITIALLY. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN IN AND MOVE SW THROUGH KY.
ALL SEVERE THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS, ALONG WITH A 1"-
2" HAIL THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT
HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE WITH DISCRETE CELLULAR STORMS RATHER THAN
WITH THE LINEAR CONVECTION. A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY EAST OF I-65, BUT NOT OFF THE TABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SBCAPE VALUES ARE RANGING FROM 2,000 - 4,000 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR THE ENVIRONMENT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30 - 40 KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
AHEAD OF THIS LINE, ADDING TO THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. HOWEVER, LCL
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL WHICH WOULD DECREASE THAT
THREAT SLIGHTLY. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH THE
FAVORABLE PWAT ENVIRONMENT. STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, ALONG WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KY
COUNTIES MAINLY EAST OF I-65 THAT WILL RUN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
*** TOMORROW - MONDAY NIGHT ***
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY STARTING TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST, LEAVING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. TOMORROW SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AS A
MID-LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO LOW 80S TOMORROW WITH THE CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE
WEEKEND EARLY WEEK, A COUPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IS
GENERATING A LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS THAT IS BLOWING OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LINE OF POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES.
SITES SHOULD EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAIL IS ALSO A CONCERN IN THESE STORMS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ023-024-026-
027-061>063-070>076-081.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ033.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ034>043-045>049-
053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ083-089.
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...KDW
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