189
FXUS63 KLMK 071746
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
146 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION.
* THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW, BUT STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND INTENSE/FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SLOW MOVING STORMS AND HIGH PWATS MAY LEAD TO
SCATTERED REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING.
* LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO SEE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER WE EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO FROM MID-LATE WEEK WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. WITHIN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, A SMALL SCALE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL MOVE JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN GENERATING
SOME SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN IL NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON IF THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE
RIVER THIS MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE CAM GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR REGION
DRY, THOUGH THE NAM3K REMAINS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALIGNED ALONG/NORTH OF THE
PARKWAYS THROUGH SUNRISE. DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN KY, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION.
UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, WE'LL SEE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE VERY LOW
90S. WITH THOSE HIGHS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S, WE'LL SEE
MLCAPE VALUES RISE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOK TO STEEPEN IN THE 7-7.5 C/KM RANGE THOUGH WIND SHEAR
VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK. PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH
VALUES OF 1.8-2 INCHES BEING COMMON. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO OUR NORTHWEST. LATEST ENSEMBLE POPS WOULD
SUGGEST 30-50% COVERAGE IN THE NORTH WITH 15-25% COVERAGE IN THE
SOUTH. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
LOW OR ISOLATED IN THIS CASE. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS OF
35-40 MPH (LOCALIZED 45-50 MPH), AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING.
OVERALL THREAT OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MAY LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER,
CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE OVERALL
MESOSCALE SETUP FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SO PLAN ON JUST CARRYING SOME
ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR NOW AND RE-EVALUATE ON THE 07/12Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LMK CWA AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING SLOWLY EASTWARD, THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF STORMS FOR SATURDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
WEAK, SO CONVECTION WILL BE MORE PULSE LIKE IN NATURE. HEAVY
RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.
AS FOR QPF AMOUNTS, BASIN AVERAGES OF A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. AGAIN, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE SLOW MOVING STORMS OR
TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THE LATEST DATA CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEAMPLIFYING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FROM THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS. THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES
WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WITH THE MAIN MCS TRACK RUNNING FROM
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. LOCALLY, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES RAMP BACK UP INTO
THE LOWER 90S FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, OVERALL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED AT BEST.
BY MID-LATE WEEK, THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY WITH RIDGING
DEVELOPING OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST. THIS WILL SET UP THE OHIO VALLEY INTO A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS PUSHING THROUGH
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT. THE NET RESULT HERE WILL BE EPISODIC
BOUTS OF CONVECTION (POSSIBLE MCSS) MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME
OF THESE BOUTS OF CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
REPEATED BOUTS OF CONVECTION TRAINING ACROSS THE REGION COULD RESULT
IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND HYDRO ISSUES AS WE MOVE THROUGH MID-LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER THAN IN
THE EARLIER PART OF THE WEEK, GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPECTED
BOUTS OF CONVECTION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE (30-40%) FOR A BRIEF STORM AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
(HNB/SDF/LEX/RGA). MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH,
BUT STILL CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF STORM AT BWG. SW WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 15-18+ KTS
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AT ANY ONE TERMINAL, THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE AT TIMES. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...EBW
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