533
FXUS63 KLMK 080521
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
121 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING ARE AGAIN THE
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AND HOTTER, WITH HIGHS INTO THE
90S.
* AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT TIMES AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
CONDITIONS REMAIN MAINLY DRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN IN
AND CENTRAL KY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED CU FIELD. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
ONGOING IN THE CINCINNATI AREA. THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IN THAT AREA, WITH ALSO SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DRIFT LAZILY OVER THE OH VALLEY THROUGH EVENING,
PROVIDING ONLY WEAK ASCENT. THE OVERALL LACK OF FORCING WILL HELP
KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE IN CHECK THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING DUE TO
ROBUST DESTABILIZATION OF A VERY WARM, MOIST AIRMASS. RELATIVELY
SPEAKING, THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY, CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
MLCAPE WILL MAX OUT NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG THROUGH PEAK HEATING, AND
RECENT MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS DCAPE ALREADY AT 1100-1200 J/KG.
ISOLATED PULSE CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE (MOSTLY
TREES/BRANCHES). BUT THE OVERALL LIMITED COVERAGE MEANS THE RISK FOR
A STRONG STORM IS FAIRLY LOW. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 20 KTS (25 KTS
IN NORTHERN KY) WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, KEEPING THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN/STORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, WITH ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 70S BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
WE'LL HAVE ONE MORE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATE ESE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A DEEPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP
ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A LONG TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OUR
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WON'T BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK AT 15 KTS. HOWEVER, WE WILL AGAIN
SEE THE MOIST LOW-LEVELS (DEWPOINTS MID 70S) BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON. SPOTTY CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A
WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN US RIDGE AND WEAKLY RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK RELATIVELY DRY AND HOT,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. LREF MEMBERS POINT TO A VERY SMALL
CHANCE (10-20%) FOR AN ISOLATED PULSE SHOWER/STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD
APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY'S A BIT OF A TRANSITION DAY. WE START TO SEE A MORE ACTIVE
NW FLOW PATTERN TAKE SHAPE. WE COULD END UP STAYING DRY THROUGH MOST
OF TUESDAY, BUT WE ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A LARGER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX COULD TAKE AIM AT OUR AREA AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY.
MULTIPLE BOUTS OF CONVECTION THEN LOOK POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME INSTANCES OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. MUCH TOO EARLY TO TRY TO GET INTO THE
DETAILS WITH THESE STORMS, HOWEVER. TUESDAY SHOULD BE ONE MORE DAY
INTO THE LOWER 90S, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK THROUGH THE 80S
FOR HIGHS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT DOWN COMPARED TO
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER, BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT KSDF OVERNIGHT.
IN THE MORNING, WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6-
9KTS. A CU FIELD WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM....EBW
AVIATION.....MJ
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