703
FXUS63 KLMK 092317
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
717 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AS WE
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
* SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THE WEEK COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
CURRENTLY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WHILE UPPER ZONAL FLOW REMAINS
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE REGION, OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS KEEPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 MPH OVER THE REGION AS GUSTS IN SOME
AREAS REACH AROUND 15-20 MPH. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S, MAKING FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY.
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL EASE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, BUT CONTINUED WAA
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM AROUND 1-1.25" TO
1.6-1.8" BY 12Z MONDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BEGIN TO AMPLIFY NORTH OF
THE ROCKIES, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW BECOMING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL DIRECT ANY ACTIVITY BEING PUSHED BY THE UPPER FLOW
CLOSER TO THE CWA AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO CLIMB
TOWARDS 2". THE MODELS HAVE THIS GENERAL TREND IN OVERALL FLOW, BUT
THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
WITH THE MAIN FLOW REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST, THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED NORTHEAST OF THE CWA, THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA, SOUTHERN OHIO, AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY, BUT WITH
CONTINUED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S, ANY ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FOLLOW
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS WOULD ALSO DEPEND ON TIME OF DAY WITH DIURNAL
WARMING INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS BEING POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WITH LIMITED SHEAR, WIND, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WITH THIS BEING SAID, MUCH OF THESE DAYS
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MANY AREAS, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA, REMAINING DRY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
AMPLIFYING RIDGING OUT WEST WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MULTIPLE SYSTEMS RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL ALLOW
FOR AMPLE INSTABILITY EACH DAY. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK TO SUFFICIENT,
INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, A FRONT WILL STALL IN THE OHIO VALLEY
VICINITY AS RIDGING BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTH AND ALONG THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS (SOME STRONG TO SEVERE POSSIBLE).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. TOMORROW
WILL FEATURE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH A FEW CLOUD LAYERS POSSIBLE,
AND THERE ALSO IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY PRECIP MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, WINDS BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS,
WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...CJP
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