872
FXUS63 KLMK 100722
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY. ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY, DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
* STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE STRONG/SEVERE WITH TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL, INTENSE LIGHTNING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND INTO PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN
KENTUCKY.
* MULTIPLE CLUSTERS AND/OR WAVE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY TRAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF IN/OH AND KY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. LOCALLY, THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
FLOODING WOULD BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA (SE IN AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE MILD WITH READINGS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S. AREA RADARS REMAIN QUIET WITH ONLY JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. A SPRINKLE OR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER COULD AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN BLUEGRASS IN THE
NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNRISE WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S.
FOR TODAY, WE'LL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, WE'LL SEE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSH INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW LOW 100'S
HERE AND THERE. WITH THE ANTICIPATED HEATING, WE'LL SEE INSTABILITY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHEAR ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN RATHER WEAK, WITH THE STRONGER FLOW REMAINING TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AND A MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IN AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS IN/OH IS WHERE THE
BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE, BUT THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. THE BEST CHANCES OF
STORMS TODAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN IN COUNTIES AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION. SPC HAS KEPT THE SLIGHT
RISK NORTH OF THE CWA, BUT A MARGINAL RISK DOES EXTEND DOWN TO THE I-
64 CORRIDOR. OVERALL, THIS SEEMS WELL PLACED FOR NOW, GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. MAIN STORM HAZARDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS, AND
INTENSE LIGHTNING.
FOR TONIGHT, THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. WE STILL THINK OUR SE IN
AND NORTHERN BLUEGRASS WOULD BE AT MOST RISK FOR STORMS IN THE
CURRENT SETUP AND WE'LL KEEP 30-40% POP COVERAGE GOING IN THOSE
AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOW-
MID 70S.
MOVING INTO TUESDAY, FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FROM THE MIDWEST DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
FROM ROUGHLY NORTHERN IL INTO FAR NORTHERN KY (ALONG THE KY/OH
BORDER). THE LMK CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS FRONT
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER 100S.
WE EXPECT PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY (2000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE) AND SHEAR (40-
45KTS) ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN IL THROUGH
CENTRAL IN AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OH. MLCAPE AND SHEAR VALUES DO
DECREASE QUITE A BIT THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO INTO KENTUCKY.
COMBINATION OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS A
BIT UNCERTAIN AS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE LOCATED AND PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS EARLIER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS OF THIS WRITING, WE FEEL THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO FORT KNOX DOWN TO
AROUND SOMERSET. STORMS THAT DO FIRE WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. THE
OVERALL SETUP LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME, THE
HIGHEST RISK OF THAT LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LMK
FORECAST AREA.
CONTINUED CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE. LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE
MILD WITH READINGS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EAST,
WITH MID 70S ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG/SEVERE STORM RISK, THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LMK CWA.
THE HIGHEST RISK OF FLOODING WILL BE IN THOSE AREAS WHERE THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES. THE HIGHEST FLASH FLOOD RISK AT THIS TIME
WOULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IN, NORTHERN KY/SOUTHERN OHIO
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. BASIN QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, MUCH HIGHER
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
MOVING INTO THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD, THE FORECAST REASONING HAS
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 24-48 HOURS. AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING
CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST. LOCALLY, A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS OR AT LEAST BISECT THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STRETCH
FROM CENTRAL IL THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IN AND INTO EASTERN KY.
THIS BOUNDARY MAY SLIP A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD INTO KY ON WEDNESDAY
AND WITH A COUPLE OF PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW, MORE EPISODIC BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED. IN
AREAS SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT, DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD
TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND WITH SHEAR INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION,
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, INTENSE LIGHTNING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP, PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN KY MAY REMAIN DRY AND HOT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WED/THU WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.
MOVING INTO THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND, WE'RE STARTING TO SEE A
STRONGER SIGNAL/TREND IN THE DATA WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER EASTERN
TX AND INTO LA/MS/AL. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT, WE'LL SEE THE
STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION LIFT NORTHWARD AND
PUSH THE STORM TRACK BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR FRI-SUN ACROSS SOUTHERN IN
AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 90S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN KY, ESPECIALLY IF THEY REMAIN RAIN-
FREE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 8-10KTS AND GUSTS TO 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
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