627
FXUS63 KLMK 151716
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
116 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 109 DEGREES BOTH DAYS.
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS WEEKEND FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
SOUTHERN IN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KY.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (20-30% CHANCE)
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF A SALEM, INDIANA TO RICHMOND, KENTUCKY
LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ANY STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.
* A REPRIEVE FROM THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER, AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS, COMES MONDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS TO THE
SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE BLUEGRASS THIS
MORNING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA. CONDITIONS HAVE OTHERWISE BEEN
CALM, WITH THE ADDITIONAL EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG SOUTH OF
LEXINGTON AND NEAR I-75 THAT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.
LOOKING BROADLY, THE REGION IS CURRENTLY UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THAT
IS SET TO LAST INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEKEND. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD, ALLOWING SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TO
SHIFT FROM THE NNE TO THE SW, BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL HOT AND HUMID
AIR. WHILE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT IN DANGER OF BEING
BROKEN WITH THIS CURRENT PATTERN, DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S
WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 100S. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA FOR HEAT INDICES UP TO
109 SATURDAY, BEGINNING AT 11 AM EDT/10 AM CDT. FOR AREAS NOT IN THE
ADVISORY, CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLE. HREF PROBABILITIES
FOR HEAT INDICES OVER 100 ARE GREATER THAN 70% FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
SO BE PREPARED IF YOU PLAN TO GO OUTSIDE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF
TIME. THERE WOULD BE TWO POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS TO HOW HIGH HEAT
INDICES COULD GET: 1) LOW-LEVEL MIXING FROM CLEAR SKIES IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA THAT WOULD DECREASE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AND LOWER HEAT
INDICES; 2) BUILDING CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN CWA FROM AN
INCOMING SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS, IOWA, AND MISSOURI THAT
WOULD LIMIT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
SPEAKING OF THE SYSTEM OFF TO OUR WEST, THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WITH ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA. WHILE AMPLE INSTABILITY (HREF MEAN CAPE > 2000
J/KG) WILL BE IN PLACE, GENERALLY WEAKER WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT HOW
STRONG THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO GET. THE SPC HAS A VERY SMALL
AREA IN THE NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE BLUEGRASS UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH PLACES WEST IN A MARGINAL RISK OR
GENERAL THUNDER AREA FOR THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. MOST PLACES WILL
REMAIN DRY, ESPECIALLY AS YOU GO SOUTH AND WEST IN THE REGION, BUT A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TO THE NORTH
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL RIDE THE RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY, PRESENTING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH,
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S. CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE PARKWAYS WILL BE DRY, BUT ALSO MUGGY WITH FAIRLY WEAK WINDS
FORECAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION,
ALLOWING MORE UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAY, WITH LOW TO MID 90S IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY, AND MID-TO-UPPER 90S
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR HEAT INDICES AT
OR ABOVE 105 INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 85% FOR OUR WESTERN CWA,
THOUGH CHANCES FOR HEAT INDICES ABOVE 110 REMAIN LOW (<15%). THE
HEAT ADVISORY BEGINNING LATER SATURDAY LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
UNTIL 9 PM EDT/8 PM CDT.
IN TERMS OF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
TWO DISTURBANCES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AS A RESULT, CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF A DISTURBANCE
OVER THE NE CONUS PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT (HREF MEAN CAPE > 2500 J/KG), THOUGH WEAKER WIND
SHEAR (<30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR) COULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF
STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY. THE ONE THING THAT CAN COUNTERACT THIS SOME
IS THAT AN AREA OF >2" PW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY, ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN CWA. THE SPC HAS ALSO PUT OUT A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY DUE TO THIS
POTENTIAL.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING AND NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING A MUCH-NEEDED
REPRIEVE FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING.
OVER THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WORKWEEK, DEW POINTS WILL DECREASE
FROM THE 70S TO THE 60S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE MONDAY, WITH REMAINING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION DEPARTING MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY, SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LEADING UP TO LATE WEDNESDAY, A BROADER PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE
PLACE. ACROSS THE CONUS, RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS TROUGHING DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY/NE CONUS. THIS WILL HELP SET UP A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR
OUR REGION, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW-NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH,
ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED REPRIEVE FROM UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW TO SCT AT 250 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SW TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT
SOME SITES MAY SEE A MORE SSW WIND OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
LOW (20-30%) FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TAF WERE KEPT DRY DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
DEVELOPMENT AND SPECIFIC LOCATIONS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR KYZ023>031-
034-038-039-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>078-081-082.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR INZ076>078-
083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...CAL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page