092
FXUS63 KLMK 032336
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
736 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.
* DAILY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE OVER 100 AND UP TO 107.
* WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL PROVIDE LITTLE
RELIEF DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY BY
REMAINING HYDRATED AND LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS IF POSSIBLE.
* A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ENDING OUR STRETCH OF HOTTER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
IT'S ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND NORTHERN INDIANA,
AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH
A FEW MORE HOURS OF PEAK HEATING STILL TO COME, SOME PLACES REACHING
100 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER IS THANKS TO
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS STILL IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH HEAT
INDICES OF 100-107 EXPECTED. A FEW VERY BRIEF AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR PRESENT
(<15 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR), CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, THE HOT AIR
MASS WILL AGAIN LIMIT OUR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY, WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 70S FORECAST.
FOR FRIDAY, A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO BY THE
EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT (~20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE SPC PLACING THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WHILE
SBCAPE WILL BE NEAR 2000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON, WEAK WIND SHEAR
(<20 KT) WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING IS LOW.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS (30-
50%) MAINLY EAST OF I-65. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW
MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THIS DOES PRESENT
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
MARGINAL RISK IS AGAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR GUSTY
WINDS, BUT THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF WEAKER WIND SHEAR WILL AGAIN
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ON THE HOTTER END, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WHILE
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO
SATURDAY, FURTHER CONSIDERATION MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WITH THE COLD FRONT DEPARTING OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SUNDAY MORNING,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL FILL IN OVER THE REGION.
LOOKING BROADLY AT THE UPPER-LEVELS, AN OMEGA BLOCK TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE AS TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS FLANK BOTH SIDES OF A WELL-AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
WILL BE PLACED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
TO CLOSE OFF THE WEEKEND AND START THE FOLLOWING WORKWEEK WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90. THE BIGGEST BENEFIT FROM THIS PATTERN CHANGE
WILL BE THE INCREASE IN DRIER AIR, ALLOWING DEW POINTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO DROP INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL HELP WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY, ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AS THE WORKWEEK PROGRESSES, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN, CAUSING THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERLY OVER THE REGION, LOWER-LEVEL AND SURFACE
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO FILL BACK IN.
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL RETURN TUESDAY, LASTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW WEAK PERTURBATIONS
PASSING OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAK WIND SHEAR IN PLACE, CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY (<20% CHANCE).
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
ANOTHER PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE. MOST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE NE CONUS WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PASSES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TIMING AND
PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS COULD BE
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 20 NM OF KBWG, THOUGH THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-
MORNING FRIDAY. TOMORROW, ANOTHER SCATTERED CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-7K FT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY GREATER
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS, ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL ONLY BE AROUND 10-20%. AS A RESULT, WE'LL KEEP
TSRA/SHRA OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS
TOMORROW SHOULD BE MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS, WITH VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION MAINLY BETWEEN SW AND NW.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR KYZ023>043-
045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR INZ076>079-
083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...CSG
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