376
FXUS63 KLMK 100533
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
133 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BRING A WEAKENING, BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SEVERE THREAT IS ON THE LOWER END WITH
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
* A COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY MORNING WITH 80-90% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
BETWEEN .5" - 1" IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 1.5"
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
* THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH OFF AND ON ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
A WEAKENING, BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE SE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND DEEP
LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
TRAINING STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
A MARGINAL RISK AREA CONTINUES FOR TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
AN AXIS OF HIGH PWAT VALUES (NEAR 2.5") WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ARE BETWEEN 0.5"
AND 1". ANY LOCATIONS THAT ENCOUNTER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN COULD
SEE AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 3". AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE (50-60%) FOR 24-HOUR QPF GREATER THAN 1". THE
COMBINATION OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG,
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG, AS THE MAJORITY OF
INSTABILITY/FORCING IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE AREA, AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVE
THROUGH. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS ANY REMAINING SHEAR DROPS OFF. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE DAY AS SHOWERS
TRAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH LOW 80S IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND HIGH 80S IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT THE DAYTIME
HEATING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...
AS OF FRIDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA AND LAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE KY/TN BORDER.
A NEAR-STATIONARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD WEAK SHOWERS AND PULSE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO SATURDAY. GREATEST CHANCES LIE
IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STRONG STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT; STORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING PULSE-TYPE WINDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID-80S ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
BEFORE SURFACE HEATING GETS GOING ENOUGH TO GIVE US A CHANCE FOR A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS IN THE EVENING. TEMPS TURN TOWARD THE 85-90
DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE 75 DEGREE MARK,
MAKING SATURDAY HOT AND MUGGY.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING
TO WEAKER SURFACE WINDS AND ENCROACHING HEAT IN THE UPPER-80S AND
LOW-90S WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S. REALISTICALLY,
ONLY A SURFACE-LEVEL CAP EXISTS, SO ANY CU FORMATION HAS UNINHIBITED
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES. HOWEVER, THERE ALSO ISN'T A
WHOLE LOT OF SHEAR TO WORK WITH TO MAINTAIN THE UPDRAFT AND VERY
LITTLE FORCING EXISTS, SO ONLY PULSE-TYPE STORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
ISOLATED EVENING SHOWERS STAY IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH BETTER CHANCES CREEPING IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
THINGS ARE MOSTLY QUIET AT THE TAF SITES THIS HOUR, HOWEVER A FEW
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO BWG AND HNB. VFR PREVAILS
THIS MORNING WITH A BKN MID DECK OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED WITH TIME. ALSO EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW STORMS TO INCREASE TOWARD DAWN AND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. HIGHLIGHTED THESE TIMES WITH PROB30S, AND THEN ANOTHER PROB30
FOR EXPECTED AFTERNOON T-STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL GO FROM STEADY SW TO NW WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND THEN END LATER TONIGHT AS A NE SURFACE WIND.
ANY SHOWER OR STORM COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VIS INTO THE IFR, BUT WILL
MENTION JUST LOW MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AS THE
FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...JPH
AVIATION...BJS
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