129
FXUS63 KLMK 101050
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
650 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TODAY WITH 80-90% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLE. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BETWEEN .5" - 1" IS
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 1.5" POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS COULD
SEE 3"+ WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.
* THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH OFF AND ON ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
* OVERALL DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING
AS SUBTLE LOW LEVEL JETTING (~25 KNOTS) CONTINUES TO RESPOND BENEATH
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET STRUCTURE. AS WE MOVE
TOWARD DAWN AND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS, IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A BIT OF AN UPTICK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO OCCUR AS THE
WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO RIVER. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. PWATS LOOK TO
SURGE OVER 2" THROUGH THE COLUMN, AND WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE
EXPECTED WE COULD SEE A FEW WATER LOADED DOWNBURSTS IN THE MOST
INTENSE PRECIP CORES. LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON, ML CAPE VALUES LOOK
TO RISE INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER (AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT). BY THIS TIME, THE OVERALL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKENED, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE
LOSS OF THE LLJ. STILL, COULD GET A FEW LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS, ALONG
WITH A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT THANKS TO HIGH PWATS, RELATIVELY
SLOW MOVEMENT, AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES. STILL SEEING SOME
LOCALLY HIGH VALUES OVER 2-3"+ SHOWING UP IN THE HREF PMM DATA,
WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO WHAT THE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SHOWING THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS PLAUSIBLE. DON'T HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND/OR PLACEMENT TO FOCUS FLOOD HEADLINE AT
THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW-
END LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH, SO WILL LINGER SOME
SHOWER CHANCES INTO LATE TONIGHT ACROSS KY, WITH SOUTHERN IN LIKELY
STAYING MORE DRY. OVERALL INTENSITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED BY
THIS TIME WITH THE LOSS OF THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THE FRONT
STARTING TO WASH OUT.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
COMBINED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH WILL PROVIDE
SOME RELIEF IN TEMPERATURES TODAY, AT LEAST FOR SOUTHERN IN AND
NORTH CENTRAL KY. SOUTHERN KY WILL STILL HOLD ONTO UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...
THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KY/TN
BORDER ON FRIDAY, WITH A WEAK AND MEANDERING SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL POOL OVER OUR
AREA AHEAD OF THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH SHOWERS AND STORM
CHANCES CONTINUING MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE WEAK, SO ANY SLOW MOVING STORM MAY
BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN A TALL/SKINNY PROFILE COMBINED WITH 2 -
2.25" PWATS, HIGH FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 15K FEET, AND SLOW MOVEMENT
WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT WITH RAIN RATES. SOMETHING TO WATCH GOING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 80S,
ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA COULD SNEAK INTO THE UPPER
80S. WILL KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND A TRIGGERING MECHANISM.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...
LOOKS TO BE A DRIER AND HOTTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA, PUSHING THE STRONGER WESTERLIES MUCH
FARTHER NORTH. THIS WILL PUT US IN A MOSTLY SUBSIDENT AND DRY
PATTERN AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE H7 INVERSION.
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER PATTERN CHANGE
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BY TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...
THERE SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT (FOR DAY 7 ANYWAY),
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT BY MID WEEK, AND ALLOWS A
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH OUR REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A RETURN OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA, IF CORRECT. IN ADDITION,
TEMPERATURES WOULD PROBABLY STEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL TEMPS BACK IN
THE 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO A MORE NW COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT TO CALM VRB
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY SITES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS CAUSING MVFR
CIGS. HNB/LEX/RGA HAVE THE CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR WITH OVC/BKN007
CEILINGS. TOMORROW MORNING WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO AN ALMOST PURELY
EASTERLY FLOW.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...CAL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page