859
FXUS63 KLMK 151620
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1220 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
* LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN UNLIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
TODAY, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE HIGH, CENTERED OVER EASTERN
TENNESSEE BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY TILTED, STRETCHING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SITS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, CAUSING WAA TO LIFT HIGHS INTO THE 90S. ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65, THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL CROSS THE 100 DEGREE LINE. DUE
TO THE HEAT, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN
AND CONDITIONS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.
AT NIGHT, BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WINDS EASE BUT REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURE ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
DURING THIS TWO DAY PERIOD, THERE IS A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-
NORTHEAST FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE CWA LATER TODAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA BY WEDNESDAY, BECOMING
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED. THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY TRAVELING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH, TO OUR SOUTHEAST, COULD
BRING ISOLATED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE FOR OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH BETTER CHANCES REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THURSDAY, THE UPPER HIGH SITS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
ONE POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE PUSHING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
ANOTHER NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE FORMING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
HIGH, RUNNING THROUGH THE OZARKS AND NORTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS
PUSHING LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA, BUT BELIEVE A
BETTER 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME WILL ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY AS A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH TO
OUR EAST AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES THE CWA. WITH ANY
OF THESE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW.
LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, CONSENSUS REMAINS WEAK AS THE
CORE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. TO START THIS PERIOD,
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH, BRINGING GULF MOISTURE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES NORTHWARD, SO ANY SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE
CONVECTION, BUT EVEN WITHOUT ANY RAINFALL, WE CAN COUNT ON WARM
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THANKS TO THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION, FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN VFR. SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL TRY AND PUSH A
WEAK BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO TOMMOROW. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH IS TOO STRONG
FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVITY KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY AND ANY CLOUDS
IN THE FORM OF HIGH STRATUS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ023>034-038-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>077-081.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BTN
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