830
FXUS63 KLMK 060526
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN LOW-
LYING RURAL AREAS TONIGHT, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF FROST IS LOW.
* MILD-MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WORST OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY,
WILL WORSEN THIS WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS. THE NEXT (40-50%)
CHANCE FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
*** MILD THROUGH TOMORROW, PATCHY FROST(?) TONIGHT ***
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MAINTAINS COOL,
NORTHERLY BREEZES. AT 245PM EDT, TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 70S,
AND DEWPOINTS, BROUGHT DOWN BY DEEP MIXING INTO A DRY LAYER ABOVE
900MB, WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THIS DRY AIRMASS AND LACK
OF ANY CLOUDS WILL FAVOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL LOSSES OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE APPALACHIANS, LEAVING A SLIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA. IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AREA WHERE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER CLOSER TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER, TEMPERATURES MAY
(HREF PROBABILITIES ARE 15-30%) FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, ANY FROST WOULD BE EXTREMELY ISOLATED, AS INDICATED BY
NBM'S <3% PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 37 DEGF.
*** SLIGHTLY WARMER, REMAINING DRY INTO SATURDAY ***
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW FAVORING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WHILE SUNNY SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S (WARMEST SOUTH). RETURN FLOW OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ADVECTING
A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. GIVEN MIXING UP TO AROUND
850MB, HREF MEAN 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15 DEGC SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S (WARMEST WEST), HOWEVER THIS DEEP
MIXING WILL ALSO BRING DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE (MIN RH VALUES 25-
35%) - KEEPING HEAT INDICES COOLER THAN ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES.
A DECAYING COOL FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA
ON THURSDAY, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTING FROM THE
MIDWEST TO APPALACHIANS IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE, THE WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAW
AND CALIBRATED GUIDANCE MAINTAINING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S THROUGH SATURDAY (AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE "NORMAL").
*** TROPICAL REMNANTS TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAIN(?) BY SUNDAY ***
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF A DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. NHC SUGGESTS
THERE IS A 60% (80%) CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT 2 (7) DAYS, HOWEVER MEMBER LOW LOCATIONS FROM BOTH THE
GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLES EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK WITH SOME MEMBERS BRINGING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS AND OTHERS SHUNTING IT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. IF THE LOW
TRACKS NEAR/THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA, THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS WE'D SEE A HEFTY RAIN EVENT -
PERHAPS ENDING THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT. HOWEVER, IF IT PASSES TO THE
EAST OR WEST, THE WEEKEND WOULD LIKELY REMAIN DRY AFTERALL. AT THIS
TIME, OUR FORECAST FEATURES A 40-50% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN,
WHILE NBM CHANCES FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES RANGE FROM 10% NORTH OF I-
64 TO 25% OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD DUE TO
HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND WILL
SHIFT TO THE EASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...SRW
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