123
FXUS63 KLMK 061854
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
254 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER FOR TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* REMNANTS OF A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BRING BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
*** TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ***
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINING
OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME MIXING
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE DROPPING RH
VALUES. MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S. AREAS WITH HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RH TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT LEADING TO VERY LITTLE EFFECT TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHERN IN AREAS WILL SEE MINIMAL RELIEF WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
*** SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ***
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN INTO A CYCLONE IN
THE GULF OF AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO CONUS AND BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE REGION. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
FOR THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS DISPLAYING TWO MAIN OUTCOMES FOR THE
AREA THAT IS DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEMS TRACK, TIMING, AND SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PUSH NE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT
WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION WITH THE
HELP OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCE
FORCING, THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO AREA. HOWEVER, SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE PHASING IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFTER LANDFALL. IN THIS CASE, RAINFALL WOULD BE ARRIVING WITH
THE PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH WOULD HAVE A LATER ONSET TIME IN THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME WOULD ALSO RESULT IN A PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. GENERALLY, THE
CONSISTENCIES LIE WITH ONSET TIME LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH
RAIN CHANCES ALL DAY SUNDAY. QPF VALUES ARE RANGING FROM 0.5" - 1"
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH-END AMOUNTS ARE CLOSER TO 2" WITH SWATHS OF
2.5" THROUGH CENTRAL KY.
AFTER THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA, KEEPING A NW FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AS THEY CONTINUE TO SHIFT AND BECOME WESTERLY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAL
AVIATION...CAL
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