915
FXUS63 KLMK 070706
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
* REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BRING SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY
LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD 0.5-1.0 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
=== WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY ===
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING TO THE EAST, WHICH IS ALLOWING WINDS TO
VEER THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON, WE WILL SEE AMPLE MIXING UP TO
ABOUT 850MB ENHANCED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. DRY AIR MIX DOWN IS
POSSIBLE THIS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING DEW POINTS INTO THE
LOW-MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ENSEMBLES SHOW ABOUT A 40-50%
CHANCE OF BELOW 45F DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS SET UP,
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OVERACHIEVE AND REACH THE LOW-MID
80S. WE WILL SEE BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON UP TO 20MPH. OVERALL,
A VERY DRY AND WARM DAY.
TONIGHT, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
LOOKING TO SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AND SCATTERED UPPER SKY
COVER. THOUGH WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, JUST
A REINFORCED DRY AIRMASS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
CONTINUE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MIXING UP TO 800MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE AND SLIGHTLY OVERACHIEVING HIGH TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S - MID 80S THESE DAYS. RH, IN
THE PEAK OF THE AFTERNOON, MAY DIP INTO THE 20-25% RANGE.
=== TROPICAL REMNANTS OF (CURRENT) TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ===
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS IDENTIFIED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
(NINE) IN THE GULF NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT
THIS TIME, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL FRIDAY AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. ON SATURDAY, RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DEPENDING ON HOW THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
INTERACT WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL LOW TRACK AS IT MOVES INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS,
WE HAVE SEEN MORE AGREEMENT ON GULF MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND A SLIGHT CONVERGENCE ON RAINFALL TOTALS. CURRENTLY,
LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES AND WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND STICK AROUND THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. LREF CLUSTERS AND NBM ENSEMBLES SHOW BETWEEN 0.5-1.5
INCHES OF RAIN AREA WIDE, WITH HIGHER TOTALS OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 2.5 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE
RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE REGION WILL DETERMINE IF WE SEE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. IF THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TRACKS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL TORNADOES, WHICH ARE VERY WEAK AND BRIEF, AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 30-35MPH.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, TROUGHING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND
WILL LIKELY SWEEP THE REMNANT TC ENERGY AND PUSH IT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. VERY LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THE MORNING, WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-8KTS. IN THE AFTERNOON, GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 18KTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH THE DAY. FEW-SCT UPPER SKY COVER WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTH
THIS EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
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