857
FNUS73 KLMK 080749
FWSLMK
SPOT FORECAST FOR DAVIS BEND...NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
349 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON OCTOBER 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. A SHARP
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE BURN LOCATION BY 5AM ET AND
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WE
WILL SEE TRANSPORT WINDS START OUT OF THE NORTH, SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHEAST MID-MORNING, AND THEN BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AMPLE MIXING UP TO 5000-5300FT WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON RH WILL RANGE FROM 22-30%. GIVEN
GOOD MIXING, CLEAR SKIES, AND TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 7-10KTS, WE
WILL SEE FAIR DISPERSION TODAY.
SIMILAR CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON RH WILL BE IN THE 22-30% RANGE. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 8-10KTS.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........56 AT IGNITION...MAX 82.
RH..................80 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 0 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /1800 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...MARGINAL
/34900 KNOT-FT/.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 47 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........5 5 2 1 4 3
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............56 56 67 76 80 81
RH..............80 83 63 37 28 24
20 FT WIND......N 0 N 0 NE 2 NE 4 NE 3 N 3
20 FT WIND GUST.1 1 5 8 9 8
MIX HGT (FT)....300 400 1000 2600 4400 5000
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 7 N 8 NE 10 NE 12 NE 9 N 8
LVORI...........5 4 2 1 1 1
ADI.............3 8 14 37 47 46
SDSPL KT-FT/10002 3 9 26 35 35
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 52.
RH..................MAX 74 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND 6 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (200 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 TO 28.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........1 3 0 0 0 2
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............79 71 61 57 55 53
RH..............26 41 60 69 72 74
20 FT WIND......N 2 NE 1 N 0 N 0 N 0 N 0
20 FT WIND GUST.6 2 1 1 1 1
MIX HGT (FT)....3300 400 200 400 400 400
TRANSPORT WIND..N 7 NE 6 NE 5 E 5 E 6 E 6
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 3 3
ADI.............28 3 2 2 3 3
SDSPL KT-FT/100020 2 1 2 2 2
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 86.
RH..................MIN 23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (39200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................3 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 53 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........3 2 0 3 0 8
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............52 52 65 77 83 85
RH..............74 74 52 33 24 23
20 FT WIND......E 1 E 1 E 2 E 3 SE 3 E 3
20 FT WIND GUST.2 2 4 8 9 8
MIX HGT (FT)....300 400 800 2100 3800 4500
TRANSPORT WIND..E 6 E 7 E 8 E 10 SE 10 SE 9
LVORI...........3 3 2 2 1 1
ADI.............3 7 8 28 48 49
SDSPL KT-FT/10002 2 6 19 34 36
FORECASTER...SRW
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL VASQUEZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623077.2/LMK
.DELDT 10/08/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CMINOR@TNC.ORG,MICHAEL.VASQUEZ@TNC.ORG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page