599
FXUS63 KLMK 081036
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
636 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
EACH DAY.
* THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND GUSTS UP TO 30MPH OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE
BETWEEN 0.75" AND 1.5" OF RAINFALL, THOUGH LOCALIZED AREAS MAY
RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
=== WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY ===
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AROUND SUNRISE. A FEW MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A SHARP NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ARE NOTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE NAME "COLD" FRONT IS A LITTLE MISLEADING, AS WE WILL NOT
SEE A CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. THOUGH, THIS FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE
DRY AIRMASS AND KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WE WILL SEE PEAK MIXING UP TO ABOUT 825MB.
THIS WILL HELP TO BRING DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO OVERACHIEVE. HREF PROBABILITIES SHOW A 50% CHANCE OF
DEW POINTS LESS THAN 40F THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THE BLUEGRASS AND LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL PLACE
AFTERNOON RHS IN THE 20-25% RANGE.
ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GULF STATES.
ALOFT, HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AS RIDGING SHIFTS EAST AND AMPLIFIES
OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING TO SEE CONTINUED QUIET, DRY, AND WARM
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RH WILL DIP INTO THE 22-28% RANGE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 80S.
=== REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS TO BRING RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND ===
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS CLASSIFIED HURRICANE ISAIAS AS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS STORM IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF A HIGH-END CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL FRIDAY EVENING. OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS, THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND HAS SPED UP.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY, THE RAIN SHIELD WILL BECOME
EXPANSIVE AS IT IS QUICKLY PICKED UP BY SYNOPTIC TROUGHING.
CURRENTLY, LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND OTHER ENSEMBLES SHOW RAIN
CHANCES ENTERING SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND WORKING NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH, THE GUSTY WINDS AND BETTER TROPICAL RAINFALL WILL
NOT ENTER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH AT AN INSTABILITY MINIMUM,
THIS WILL LUCKILY BRING A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR TROPICAL TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY, ENSEMBLES SHOW LOW CAPE VALUES, WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE. THOUGH, IF THIS SYSTEM DOES SPEED UP, SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR TROPICAL TORNADOES IN THE EVENING. THESE
TORNADOES ARE WEAK AND BRIEF.
SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, 850MB WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 60-65KTS AND WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN. A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE WILL PREVENT ANY MIXING OF THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THEREFORE, WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25-35MPH OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND UP TO 25MPH ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN THE STRONG LLJ IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE, AREAS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL SEE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AREA-WIDE, QPF WILL RANGE
0.75-1.5 INCHES. AREAS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KY MAY SEE TOTALS UP
TO 3 INCHES. GIVEN VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THIS RAIN IS
WELCOMED TO HELP COMBAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ANY FLOODING CONCERNS
SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED DURING THIS EVENT.
=== DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK ===
THE REMNANT ENERGY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE SWEPT NORTHEAST
AS TROUGHING SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND, ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND CLEARING
SKIES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THROUGH TUESDAY. MID WEEK, STRONGER TROUGHING
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THIS REGION THIS MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT. DURING PEAK MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON, WE COULD SEE WINDS FROM 330 TO 010 AROUND 7-10KTS. AS THE
SUN SETS, WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND VEER TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
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