439
FXUS63 KLMK 081825
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
225 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
EACH DAY.
* THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE
BETWEEN 0.75" AND 1.5" OF RAINFALL, THOUGH LOCALIZED AREAS MAY
RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
*** TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ***
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP AGAIN TODAY AS DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
IS BEING MIXED DOWN. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A SE WIND AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EAST. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
*** SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK ***
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE NORTH THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, AND EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS WAY UP TO OUR
REGION THIS WEEKEND.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EAST, TROUGHING TO THE WEST WILL PHASE
TOGETHER WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GULF AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS
TRACK NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TO
THE SOUTHERN KY COUNTIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ONSET. GIVEN
HOW DRY THE AREA HAS BEEN, THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE MORE BENEFICIAL
AND POSES A LOW FLOODING THREAT. OPF VALUES ARE RANGING FROM 0.5" TO
1.5" WITH THE HIGH AMOUNTS THROUGH CENTRAL KY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
3"+ ARE STILL POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE), WHICH WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN
POST LANDFALL. THIS HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
EVENING. SOUTHERN KY COULD SEE WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH, WHILE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD BE LOWER AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN LOW AS INSTABILITY WILL BE AT A MINIMAL
WITH ONSET. GUIDANCE IS CONSIST WITH LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED CAPE
ACROSS THE AREA LIMITED TO AVAILABLE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO FORM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE REMAINDER OF THE SYSTEM WILL PHASE IN WITH
THE JET STREAM AND PUSH OUT TO THE EAST. BY MONDAY, SYNOPTIC RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AND CLEARER SKIES BACK FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND NIGHTTIME
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM THE N/NE TO THE N/NW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
VEERING TO THE E/SE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY, WITH 5-10 KT E/SE WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAL
AVIATION...CSG
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