281
FXUS63 KLMK 091812
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
212 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
* THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.75" AND 1.5" OF RAINFALL, THOUGH LOCALIZED AREAS
MAY RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES.
* DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
=== WARM AND DRY TODAY ===
HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING, WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR VERY LIGHT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. MILD DRY AIR
MIX DOWN IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, WHICH WILL BRING DEW POINTS INTO
THE LOW 40S (FOR MOST) AND HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW-MID 80S.
VENTED MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS IS BEING CARRIED NORTH ALONG
THE 250MB FLOW. THIS WILL STEADILY BRING SCATTERED UPPER SKY COVER
NORTH OVER THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
=== REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS: RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ===
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY 2 WITH MAX WINDS OF 105MPH.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO HIGH-END CAT 2 OR LOW-END CAT
3 PRIOR TO LANDFALL. GIVEN THE FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR, THERE IS
CURRENTLY A LOW CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING BEYOND A LOW-END
CAT 3. THIS BRINGS MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTH AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. GRADIENT WINDS AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL STEADILY
INCREASE SATURDAY MID-MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, THE FORECAST HAS SPED UP BY
ABOUT 6-12 HOURS. EXPECTING TO SEE MAX WINDS OF 30-35MPH OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY, AND WOULDN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT UP TO 40MPH IN
SOME MORE WIND EXPOSED AREAS. NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
WILL SEE UP TO 30MPH WINDS. GIVEN A STABLE LAYER AT THE SURFACE AND
ANTECEDENT OVERCAST SKIES, CAPE CONTINUES TO BE VERY MINIMAL DURING
THIS EVENT. THIS DECREASES CHANCES FOR TROPICAL TORNADOES. THOUGH,
IF WE SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY, WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
TROPICAL TORNADO. THESE TORNADOES ARE VERY WEAK AND BRIEF. OVERALL
QPF CONTINUES TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.5 INCHES. LPMMS SHOW WEAK SIGNALS
FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF ABOUT 2.5 INCHES. GIVEN VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, NOT EXPECTING FLOODING ISSUES, THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS COULD SEE MINOR PROBLEMS.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND GET PICKED UP
BY UPPER TROUGHING.
=== DRY TO START NEXT WEEK ===
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AND WARM
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG UPPER
RIDGING WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THEN DEEPER
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WOULD
IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY EASTERLY
WINDS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. HIGH CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REST OF THE CWA, WITH THE SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES IN A BKN UPPER-LEVEL
DECK BY 3Z AT THE LATEST. 6Z TOMORROW IS WHERE THINGS START TO GET
INTERESTING - BWG AND SDF SEE WINDS START TO INCREASE THROUGH 12Z -
GUSTS OF 15 POSSIBLE, BUT GUSTS INCREASING IN FREQUENCY AND STRENGTH
FROM 12-18Z FOR ALL KY TERMINALS. MAX WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TOMORROW
ARE IN THE 30-35KT RANGE, MAINLY FOCUSED 15-20Z. THESE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY EASTERLY. RAIN BEGINS IN THE 12Z MARK FOR BWG, INCREASING IN
INTENSITY NEAR THE 18Z MARK. RAIN BEGINS FOR SDF/LEX/RGA AROUND THE
17Z MARK, AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN LATER TAF
PERIODS. AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR
BWG/RGA/LEX IN TOMORROW'S TAFS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TOMORROW
BETWEEN 14Z THROUGH END OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A LLWS LINE
FOR MOST AIRPORTS AROUND 2000 FT; THIS IS JUST DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE
IN STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BETWEEN SFC LEVEL WINDS AND THE 850MB JET
CARRYING THE TC ISAIAS REMNANTS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SRW
AVIATION...JPH
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