216
FXUS63 KLMK 100550
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
150 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN
0.50" AND 1" OF RAINFALL, THOUGH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 1-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ISOLATED 40 MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
* DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY-TO-MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
===== THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ====
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S. RH VALUES ARE
IN THE 20S IN MANY AREAS, AND THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL TAKE TIME
TO OVERCOME AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ISAIAS STARTS TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, LIGHT EAST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER, WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW-TO-MID 60S.
===== REMNANTS OF ISAIAS MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND =====
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE HURRICANE ISAIAS, WHICH SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
FL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION DOWNSHEAR FROM THE TC CENTER WILL OVERSPREAD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. PW VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE FROM 0.6-0.7" THIS AFTERNOON TO OVER 1.50" BY
TOMORROW EVENING, EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY.
WHILE THE OUTERMOST BANDS OF ISAIAS WILL LIKELY END UP AS VIRGA AS
THE COLUMN SATURATES, RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE SURFACE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN KY, WITH THE SHIELD OF RAIN LIKELY
BECOMING MORE BROKEN/SHOWERY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER ATMOSPHERE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH, OVERSPREADING MOST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS A 50 KT 850 MB JET
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WHILE INCREASING SATURATION AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LIMIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER LATER IN THE DAY, THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS
OF 10-20 MPH, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY. WHILE THERE ARE
LOW (10-40%) CHANCES FOR OCCASIONAL 40+ MPH WIND GUSTS, THE EXPECTED
COVERAGE OF SUCH GUSTS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH THAT A WIND ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET, WHEN INCREASING
STABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH ISAIAS WILL SUPPORT EASING WINDS.
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A FEW BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
THANKS TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LLJ AS WELL AS A
PLUME OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. IN THESE BANDS, HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD BE
EXPECTED, WITH 12Z REFS 6-HR LPMM AMOUNTS OF 1-2" FORECAST EAST OF I-
65. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CURRENT 6-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 3+"
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA, SO THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD NOT BE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES.
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, THE ACTUAL SFC LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND TN, WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION AS DRIER AIR WRAPS IN. OVERALL, EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH AREA TOTALS
GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 0.50-1". THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
NOW MORE LIKELY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR, WHERE 24-HR LPMM AMOUNTS OF
1-2+" ARE MORE WIDESPREAD. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AMELIORATE,
BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT REMOVE, ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
===== NEXT WEEK =====
AFTER THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH ISAIAS CLEARS THE
REGION TO THE EAST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST US FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGHING WILL SET UP IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES RIDING UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST TWO-THIRDS
OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS A STRONG ENOUGH
RIDGE OVER THE REGION TO KEEP MOST RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THOUGH A LOW (20% CHANCE) POP WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND LATER
INTO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SW FLOW PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE MAIN FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY CENTERS AROUND HOW THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS
EVOLVES AS IT BEGINS TO EJECT TO THE EAST. THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. OVC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER IN THE MORNING WITH A STEADY RAIN MOVING IN FROM 14-
18Z FROM BWG-LEX-SDF. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM NOW, BUT WILL INCREASE
GREATLY OUT OF THE EAST BY LATE MORNING AT 15-20 KNOTS, GUSTING 25-
30 KTS BY 18-24Z. -SHRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL
BE AN OFF-AND-ON SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS WILL APPROACH BWG SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY EVENING. CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH WEAKENING GUSTS IN THE EVENING,
APPROACHING IFR CEILINGS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CSG
AVIATION...BKF
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