861
FXUS63 KLMK 101051
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
651 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALLING 0.5-1" IS EXPECTED NOW THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED AREAS OF 2-3" ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL KY
AND EAST OF I-75.
* WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH AN SPS ISSUED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. WINDS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY EVENING HEADING INTO SUNDAY.
* DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY-TO-MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
===== GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS TODAY AND SUNDAY =====
NOW IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, WINDS ARE LIGHT WITH HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
SKIES STREAMING IN FROM WHAT'S LEFT OF ISAIAS. DRY AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE FROM A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARDS. THIS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE DRY UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING WHEN
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL TRY TO OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL RH
VALUES IN THE MID 50S. DESPITE THE ONSET VIRGA, PWATS WILL
EVENTUALLY RAISE NEAR 1.5" OR MORE BY THE AFTERNOON, MOISTENING THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ENOUGH FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE BANDED RAIN SHOWERS
AT TIMES. THIS WILL INDICATE THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF ISAIAS MOVING
OVERHEAD, WITH RAIN ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED OR SPOTTY BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LITTLE TO NONE DURING
THE DAY, MEANING ANY THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT. WIND
GUSTS IS OF GREATER CONCERN AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS
DRAWS CLOSER TO KY. IN TANDEM WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE AT LOWER LEVELS, A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD, ALLOWING
EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH AT TIMES, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15-20 MPH, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE
CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS DRAWS CLOSER. IN FACT, THE CENTER
OF THE LOW SHOULD MOVE OVER OUR SE CWA. ALL THE WHILE, OFF-AND-ON
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT. DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN SHOWERS, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S TODAY.
ANY HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 70S IN THE LATE MORNING WILL COOL BY THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE INCOMING MOISTURE.
SPEAKING OF, LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A MAIN
AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAPED DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL KY. AIDED BY A
STRONG JET NEAR 700MB, A FEW MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
RAIN RATES OF NEAR AN INCH AN HOUR AS THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE DRIFTS
EAST OF I-75. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN DRIFTING EAST
AS THE CENTER OF ISAIAS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AS WELL. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE LESSER ACROSS OUR SW INDIANA COUNTIES WITH HIGHER TOTALS
ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION. GENERALLY ANYWHERE FROM 0.5-1" TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AREAS COULD RECEIVE 2-3" ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND EAST OF I-75 WHERE THAT AXIS OF INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL PIVOT AS ISAIAS DRIFTS AWAY.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OUT WEST
WITH MORE EXPOSURE TO THE SUN. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE CWA.
===== NEXT WEEK =====
BEYOND SUNDAY, A RETURN TO RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND
TROUGHING IN THE WEST WILL ALLOW A SW FLOW TO RETURN TO OUR AREA.
THIS WILL BOOST HIGHS UNSEASONABLY WARM INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS OUR
WEST WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE RIDGING AMPLIFIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW PLACES NEAR THE TN BORDER WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S AS THE RIDGE KEEPS SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY TO FAR NORTH TO
COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN. EVENTUALLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND DAYS
BEYOND, THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT AND OUR CWA GETS CAUGHT
IN A BATTLE OF INFLUENCE BETWEEN STRONG PASSING LOWS OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA, AND CONTINUED RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. RECENT TRENDS
HAVE SUGGESTED A STALLING BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BRINGING LOW-END RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHILST OTHER
TRENDS BRINGS A MORE ROBUST TROUGH SWINGING FROM CANADA BY FRIDAY
PUSHING OUT THE SOUTHERN RIDGE AND A RETURN TO COOLER AIR. FOR NOW,
LOW POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL SPREAD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE A BAND OF MODERATE
RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. ENE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY MID-
MORNING AND MAY GUST 25-30KTS AT TIMES, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-
20KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL ALLOW
CEILINGS TO STEADILY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON, RAIN
WILL BECOME SPOTTY IN NATURE. A REGION OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AT
TIMES WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF TENNESSEE, LOWERING FLIGHT RULES ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, AFFECTING BWG
FIRST IN THE AFTERNOON. -SHRA PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
LOWERING VISIBILITIES NEAR 4SM. COMBINED WITH LOWERED CEILINGS, IFR-
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BKF
AVIATION...BKF
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