407
FXUS63 KLMK 110548
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
148 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AIDING THE ONGOING DROUGHT. AMOUNTS WILL
VARY WIDELY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS (80% CHANCE) SEEING BETWEEN 0.25
AND 1.5 INCHES.
* WINDS OUT OF THE EAST WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE RISK IS LOW (20-30%), AN ISOLATED
GUST OR TWO MAY REACH 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLUEGRASS AND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS COULD BLOW AROUND UNSECURED,
LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
* DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO LOCALLY UPPER 80S EACH DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE (20-40%)
FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
*** BREEZY WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY ***
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ARE BRINGING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY BENEFICIAL RAIN EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE WINDS
STEADILY INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THANKFULLY, GUSTS HAVE
GENERALLY STAYED IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE SO FAR, THOUGH A FEW HAVE
REACHED 35 MPH JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE - RUNNING ON
THE LOW END OF HREF GUIDANCE AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN WARM ADVECTION
REGIMES CHARACTERIZED BY STABLE LOW LEVELS. GIVEN A NOTABLE LLJ -
EVIDENT VIA 50-55 KT WINDS AT JUST 1KFT AGL OFF OF HPX'S VAD -
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, THERE REMAINS A LOW
CHANCE THAT MOMENTUM TRANSFER VIA HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD MIX DOWN A
ROGUE 40+ MPH GUST, BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED, WITH THE RISK DECREASING SHARPLY
AFTER 7-8PM EDT AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION STRENGTHENS. HENCE, WE
DON'T ANTICIPATE NEEDING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BUT OPTED TO
CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) THROUGH 7PM EDT
MENTIONING THE LOW CHANCE OF MINOR IMPACTS LIKE LIGHTWEIGHT, OUTDOOR
OBJECTS BLOWING AROUND.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO THIS EVENING AS MUCAPE, JUST BARELY POKING
INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) FOR CHARGE SEPARATION, REACHES
300-500 J/KG - HIGHEST OVER THE BLUEGRASS. WE'LL KEEP AN EXTRA EYE
ON RADAR DURING THE EVENING, BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXCEPTIONALLY LOW.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PIVOT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TOMORROW, RESULTING
IN LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE BLUEGRASS. THOUGH WE MAY SEE A
FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF I-65, THE
LOW WILL HAVE "FILLED" (WEAKENED) CONSIDERABLY BY THAT TIME SO WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THIS POSITION OF THE LOW TO OUR EAST
SHOULD ALSO REDUCE THE RISK FOR COLD AIR FUNNELS AND/OR A LANDSPOUT,
WITH THE RAP/NAM BOTH SHOWING HIGHEST (>1) NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
PARAMETERS (NSTS) IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AND PARTS OF WEST
VIRGINIA, THOUGH OUR RISK REMAINS NONZERO. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW-
MOVING, SO THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED POCKETS OF MODERATE-HEAVY
RAINFALL (AGAIN, MOST LIKELY OVER THE BLUEGRASS) EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES, BUT THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS GIVEN 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (FFG), OR THE MINIMUM
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL REQUIRED TO CAUSE FLOODING, IS RUNNING 3-4 INCHES
DUE TO THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM ONE LOCATION TO ANOTHER.
HREF/NBM 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE RANGES FOR STORM TOTALS SPAN LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH TO MORE THAN 2 IN SPOTS, WITH HIGH END AMOUNTS
RUNNING HIGHEST OVER THE BLUEGRASS. RAIN SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF
TOMORROW EVENING AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL, LIKE TODAY, STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS 70, WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
*** DRY MONDAY-TUESDAY, RAIN CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK ***
WE MAY KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH SOME FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING IF
CLOUDS BREAK UP, SINCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. THE 12Z HRRR IS CERTAINLY ADVERTISING THE
POTENTIAL WITH SUB QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES NEAR/EAST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR. WE'LL MONITOR TRENDS IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS TO REASSESS
THAT POTENTIAL, BUT FOR NOW WE'LL HOLD OFF ON A KEY MESSAGE ABOUT
THE FOG, WHICH HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST EAST OF
ROUGHLY I-65. GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY, WITH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND DEEP MIXING BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE MID 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON - ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SUNDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM, THOUGH BECOMING LESS DRY AS
GULF MOISTURE, LIFTED INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY, SLOWLY SPILLS INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN EACH DEPICT A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WHICH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND (CONDITIONAL ON A TRIGGER) SOME CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS (NBM) GIVES THE AREA A 20-40% CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE JURY'S OUT ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH EOF PATTERNS (SPECIFICALLY PC1 FOR EOF1) FOR 500MB HEIGHT
SUGGESTING MODEL SPREAD IN THE DEPTH OF TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE
FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS MAY BE RELATED TO THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS, WHICH HAVE PORTRAYED VARIOUS OUTCOMES WITH POTENTIAL
INTERACTION BETWEEN A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND A SERIES
OF SYSTEMS RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS, CONTINUED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WITH LESSENING
WINDS WILL IMPACT SDF-BWG-LEX THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SHOULD SOME SHOWERS BE A LITTLE HEAVIER,
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TEMPORARILY AND THIS WAS INCLUDED IN BWG.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO PATCHY LOW-
END MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH PASSING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL LESSEN AND
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE ENE NOW TO OUT OF THE WNW BY MID MORNING.
CEILINGS ARE SLOW TO IMPROVE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, CLEARING WILL BEGIN
WEST TO EAST LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF RETURN TO
VFR CEILINGS AT SDF-BWG LATE. LEX WILL BE THE LAST TO IMPROVE AND
MAY NOT SEE VFR AT ALL SUNDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY FORM THERE MONDAY
MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...BKF
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