365
FXUS63 KLMK 141738
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
138 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* A MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING,
BRINGING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING AND THE RISK FOR ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
* COMMUNITIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
FURTHER NW, STORMS ARRIVE SOONER, LIMITING HEATING POTENTIAL.
* WARMTH REMAINS AFTER A FOGGY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE FROST POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
===== ANTICIPATING ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THREAT TODAY AND WARM=====
NOW IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, THE CWA IS GOING THROUGH ANOTHER QUIET
PERIOD WELL AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT HAS DUG ITSELF DEEP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE AID OF STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT THE SURFACE AND ALL THE WAY UP TO 700MB, THERE
IS PLENTY OF JUICE FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO RELY ON TO
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
CURRENTLY, STORMS HAVE FIRED OFF NEAR CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SEEM TO
BE ON TRACK TO ARRIVE IN OUR CWA BY LATE MORNING TO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS HITTING OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES FIRST IN A SW-
NE ORIENTED LINE. PWATS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE STORMS
REACHING NEAR OR JUST OVER 2.00" WHICH IS AT ALL BUT THE 100TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH MODELED MUCAPE REACHING NEAR 1,500 J/KG IN SOME
AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE BEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALONG WITH LESS THAN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TO
FURTHER SUPPORT LIFT AS THESE STORM PROGRESS EASTWARDS TOWARDS
CENTRAL AND LATER EASTERN KY. THAT BEING SAID, THESE STORMS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE DESPITE THE AMOUNT OF JUICE IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
ADDITIONALLY, AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS SHOULD THERE BE ANOTHER WAVE
OF STORMS LATE THIS EVENING THAT THE PRIMARY WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE
MORE RAIN THAN ANY SUBSEQUENT WAVE. ALL THIS TO SAY IT APPEARS THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THIS FIRST ROUND OF
RAIN AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL FALL
BEYOND THAT.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, PERSONAL WEATHER STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING AT
MOST 2-3". EVEN HERE, THERE IS BETTER FORCING FOR LIFT WITHOUT AT
LEAST WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF OVER 4" OR SO. KNOWING THIS, RAINFALL
TOTALS SHOULD VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION, WITH 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILE TOTAL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM HREF DATA RANGING
ABOUT 0.25-1". SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO ASCERTAIN HOW
THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND STORMS DIVERGING FROM THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL EVOLVE OVER KY, HENCE THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN
RAINFALL TOTALS (HREF VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
LEFT SKEWED TO UNDER 0.5").
THESE STORMS OUT IN MISSOURI ARE TENDING TO GROW IN VERTICAL HEIGHT,
COLLAPSE UNDER THEIR OWN WEIGHT, AND GUST OUT A SURFACE BOUNDARY
THAT CHOKES OUT THE NEXT LINE OF STORMS TOO FAR INTO THE COLD POOL
WHILE ACTING AS AN AXIS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR CELLS FURTHER
SOUTH RISING INTO AND ABOVE THE BOUNDARY. THERE'S CURRENTLY A
BOUNDARY SITUATED WEST-TO-EAST JUST SOUTH OF ST. LOUIS THAT MAY
FOCUS THE NEXT INCOMING ROUND OF STORMS. SHOULD THE NEXT ROUND NOW
IN CENTRAL MISSOURI HOLD TOGETHER WITHOUT COLLAPSING FIRST, IT WOULD
AFFECT MOST OF OUR CWA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. 6HR LPMM
DATA FROM HREF INDICATE ISOLATED AREAS OF 2-5" ARE POSSIBLE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AFTER THAT FIRST LINE PASSES THROUGH. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 6HR FFG WOULD
BE SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES, A SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED STRIPE OF
COMMUNITIES FROM HART TO TRIMBLE COUNTIES (FROM RAINFALL FROM
ISAIAS), AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION NE OF LEXINGTON. STRONG TO SEVERE
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL, SHOULD THEY
CONTINUE TO BUILD UP AND COLLAPSE, THOUGH THE LARGER CONCERN REMAINS
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA (WHO WILL
BE THE FIRST TO CLOUD OVER FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND INCOMING
STORMS) TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND. HIGH
FORECASTS ARE TRICKY TODAY AND WILL SOLELY DEPEND ON THE SPEED AND
PREVALENCE OF STORMS. A STRONG HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MAY EXIST
BETWEEN NW AND SE AREAS AS A RESULT.
THE BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS TODAY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE
OVER OUR AREA BY EVENING, MOST LIKELY CLOSE TO THE TN. COMMUNITIES
NORTH OF THIS LINE WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE VERSUS WARM AND
CONTINUOUS SW FLOW SOUTH OF THIS LINE. MOISTURE WILL STAY LOCKED IN
OVERNIGHT, AND WITH CALMING WINDS AND REMNANT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM WEST TO EAST, WIDESPREAD FOG IS
LIKELY TO FORM AT LEAST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
=====LINGERING SHOWERS AND WARM THURSDAY=====
BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING, ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR IOWA AND MOVE TOWARDS GREAT LAKES REGION,
HELPING TO STRENGTHEN A RETURN TO SW FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IN
TURN WILL LIFT OUR AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND A RETURN TO SUMMERY HEAT --AGAIN, THIS LATE IN
OCTOBER! THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND CONTINUOUS MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH, BUT OTHERWISE BY MID AFTERNOON, WE
BEGIN TO DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH TO LOW 80S
AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SHOULD RAIN
KEEP FALLING, IT'S MORE LIKELY TO FALL IN THE NORTH WHILE THE SOUTH
STAYS WARM AND DRIER.
=====PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES AND GROWING FROST POTENTIAL=====
LASTLY, THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THIS POINT WILL STRENGTHEN
AND SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NEAR EARLY TO
MID-MORNING FRIDAY. WE'LL KNOW WHEN IT WILL HAVE PASSED FROM THE
PRESENCE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH IT, INCREASED DIURNAL WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH, AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. SHOULD
COMMUNITIES CLOSEST TO THE SE SEE THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS, THE
FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S BEFORE SUNSET
WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S.
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT, A HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN, KEEPING CALM WEATHER IN PLACE ALONG WITH A COOLER AIR MASS.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH THE 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS
SATURDAY WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 30S, MEANING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST IS GROWING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE
BLUEGRASS REGION. COOLER AIR REMAINS SUNDAY BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARDS. THIS MEANS THAT BY MONDAY,
LONG RANGE TRENDS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH UPPER 60S AND
MID 70S BY AT LEAST TUESDAY, REMAINING DRY AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND MOVING EAST. THIS LINE HAS BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL, LOW VIS, AND
MVFR CIGS (FOR THE MOST PART). AS THIS LINE MOVES EAST, IT WILL
ENCOUNTER A BETTER ENVIRONMENT AND MAY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIMITED OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
AND WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO LOW-END MFR AND IFR BY DAY BREAK. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BKF
AVIATION...SRW
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