407
FXUS63 KLMK 141926
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
326 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL AND GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES.
* ANOTHER SOUPY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BRING AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND
LIMITED COOLING POTENTIAL.
* TOMORROW EVENING BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHERN INDIANA, DEPENDENT UPON ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING AND TIME
OF CLEARING.
* COOLDOWN AND BREEZY WINDS ARRIVE FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR FROST
IN THE BLUEGRASS OVERNIGHT THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
**********ROUNDING OUT TODAY'S STORMS INTO TONIGHT*************
ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A FEW SPOTTY LINES WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH, RIGHT NOW ABOUT TWO
WAVES ARE VISIBLE BUT MODEL DATA IS POINTING TOWARD A THIRD FORMING
AROUND SUNSET IN ISOLATED POCKETS THAT STILL CONTAIN REASONABLE
INSTABILITY. WITH THESE SHOWERS, WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE .5" FOR THE CWA NORTH OF THE PARKWAYS; ISOLATED VALUES IN
THE .45" HAVE ALREADY FALLEN AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
ADDITIONALLY, LOCAL VALUES IN THE 2-4" RANGE ARE STILL POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE MOISTURE-LOADED SOUPY ENVIRONMENT. TRAINING IS A POSSIBLE
THREAT IF STORMS SLOW DOWN AROUND SUNSET, BUT AT THE MOMENT THINGS
ARE MOVING ALONG NICELY, JUST DUMPING RAIN. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN KNOWN FLASH-IER SPOTS, BUT RIVER/STREAM FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY.
OVERNIGHT, WE ARE UNLIKELY TO DRY OUT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
DEWS AT THE SAME MEANS WE WILL SEE FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG, IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL BUT ARE NOT ACTIVELY RAINING. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY INCLUDE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS, AND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST BENEATH CLOUD COVER.
****************TOMORROW'S HEAT AND S IN STORMS******************
AS THE SUN RISES TOMORROW, WE AREN'T LIKELY TO SEE IT AS CLOUD COVER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER, THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE GET
RID OF THE HEAT - EXPECT AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN BOWLING GREEN
AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WE SHOULD START
CLEARING AROUND NOON IN PATCHES, WITH WIDESPREAD CLEARING AROUND
SUNSET. ON THE OFF-CHANCE THAT SOUTHERN IN DOES SEE EARLIER
CLEARING, SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSBILE IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE WIND
PROFILE IS IDEAL FOR LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL
SPEED SHEAR, WITH A HODOGRAPH FAVORABLE FOR A LOW-END TORNADIC
THREAT. WHILE THIS IS A TORNADIC ENVIRONMENT, THERE ARE TOO-MANY
"IF"S INVOLVED IN THIS STATEMENT TO PORTRAY ANY KIND OF CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURENCE; THIS IS OUTLOOKED IN THE DAY 2 SPC FORECAST WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE THREAT PUSHING TOWARD CENTRAL IN AND OH.
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS S IN HAVE A TIMEFRAME OF ABOUT 2PM-10PM.
*******************3-DAY WEEKEND FORECAST************************
FRIDAY WE SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUR HIGH TEMPS WILL COME JUST AFTER SUNRISE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S (S IN) TO 70 DEGREE MARK (BOWLING GREEN, CAMPBELLSVILLE,
RICHMOND) AND A 75 DEGREE HIGH TOWARD ALBANY, KY. WE ARE BREEZY ALL
DAY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AND GUSTS UP TO 25
KT. CLOUD COVER AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARRIVE WITH OUR FRONT, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FIRMLY IN THE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER
TERRITORY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 55-65 RANGE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND
40 ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING FROST TERRITORY IN THE MID-30S
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REMAIN ALL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK STAYS DRY, AND WE GET TO KEEP THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FOR A WHILE LONGER. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND THE
24TH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND MOVING EAST. THIS LINE HAS BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL, LOW VIS, AND
MVFR CIGS (FOR THE MOST PART). AS THIS LINE MOVES EAST, IT WILL
ENCOUNTER A BETTER ENVIRONMENT AND MAY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIMITED OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
AND WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO LOW-END MFR AND IFR BY DAY BREAK. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPH
AVIATION...SRW
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