566
FXUS63 KLMK 151748
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
148 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE THIS MORNING.
* CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS LESSENED SOMEWHAT, WITH THE SOLE
THREAT BEING STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTY WINDS.
* HIGHS ARE WARM ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONE LAST
DAY BEFORE FRIDAY.
* COOL DOWN AND BREEZY WINDS ARRIVE FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR FROST
IN THE BLUEGRASS OVERNIGHT THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
=====FOGGY, WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON=====
A GAME OF CAT AND MOUSE IS ONGOING BETWEEN DEPARTING CLOUDS TO THE
EAST, AND APPROACHING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. IN
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING, DENSE FOG IS FORMING.
TIMING AND FORECASTING HOW THICK THE FOG SETTLES IN IS TRICKY
BECAUSE FOG IS HARD TO FORM WITH ANY CLOUD COVER. BE THAT AS IT MAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED VERY SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE OBSERVED DENSE FOG IN SOME AREAS THAT AREN'T IN THE TYPICAL
VALLEY LOCATIONS, FAVORED IN AREAS FROM NEAR BOWLING GREEN TOWARDS
LEXINGTON AND PLACES NW FROM THERE, INCLUDING THE LOUISVILLE METRO.
THOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE QUITE AS PREVALENT AS A FEW NIGHTS AGO, IT
WILL NONETHELESS CAUSE CONCERN FOR DRIVERS IN THE MORNING.
BEYOND FOG, WINDS ARE LIGHT AS A COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY BISECTED OUR
CWA. NEARLY CALM WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA, WITH GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF AN EAST-TO-WEST LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE
CUMBERLAND TO JUST NORTH OF BWG. SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
BUBBLE UP AND MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA AS WELL. SPOTTY SHOWERS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. THIS SIGNIFIES THE
RETURN TO SW FLOW LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN LATER THIS MORNING CONSIDERING HOW SATURATED
WE ARE (I'D IMAGINE THE WHOLE CWA ONLY HAS THE CHANCE TO COOL BY
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO).
EVENTUALLY, AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR AREA, IT WILL SLOWLY
RAISE CLOUD CEILINGS, SCOUR OUT FOG, AND GENERALLY PUSH LOWER POPS
TO OUR NORTH. SW FLOW MAY BE ENHANCED DUE TO THE CLOSE PRESENCE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHEN THE WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO FIRE AS IT PASSES SOMETIME AFTER 12
NOON EDT. FOR NOW, SINCE MOISTURE IS SO HIGH, AT LEAST IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, CLOUDS WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO CLEAR FOR PURE SUNSHINE BEFORE
STORMS FIRE. IN BETWEEN CLOUDS THOUGH, ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD
PRESENT STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE BEST WIND SHEAR WILL AVOID
US TO THE NW, AND AS A RESULT, THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY
COMPLETELY MISS OUR AREA. HIGHS WITH THIS ENHANCED SW FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE QUICK TO WARM THOUGH DESPITE THE MORNING CLOUD
COVER. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL STICK
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMEST IN THE SOUTH (SOUTH OF I-64) IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE, CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO CLEAR
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TO UPPER 70S.
IT SHOULD BE SAID THAT DESPITE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOVE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVELY WITH THE STRONG SW FLOW. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
HAVE A 75% OF REMAINING UNDER 0.5", WITH AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED RISK
OF UP TO 2" OF RAIN SHOULD A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR TWO TRACK OVER THE
SAME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS TODAY AS THE BEST SEVERE RISK AND FLOODING RISK REMAIN TOO
FAR NORTH.
=====STRONG INCOMING COLD FRONT AND SEASONABLE WARMTH NEXT WEEK=====
SW FLOW WILL INTENSIFY AS THE IMPENDING COLD BEHIND THE DEPARTING
GREAT LAKES LOW GETS CLOSER AND SWEEPS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY MORNING AND GROW STRONGER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND COOLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-
35 MPH.
SATURDAY, LOWS ARE CHILLY IN THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REALLY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD FROST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS FORECAST
IN THE MID TO LOW 30S. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE PRODUCTS RELATED TO
THIS WHEN THE TIME COMES.
BEYOND SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY VERY SLOWLY MODERATE AS
HIGHS SUNDAY REACH THE MID 60S. ISOLATED FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE,
ALTHOUGH THE POSITIONING OF A HIGH PRESSURE MAY ALLOW WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO MODERATE US JUST ENOUGH TO STAY OUT OF FROST TERRITORY. LONG
RANGE TREND IS DRY, REALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EVENTUALLY SETTLING INTO THE
LOW 70S BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER NORTHERN KY
LEADING TO MORE CLOUD COVER ON THE COOL SIDE TO THE NORTH. OVERCAST
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK ALONG WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS (AND A FEW
STORMS) WILL REMAIN IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. SITES
CAN EXPECTED A PERIOD OF MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, A WIND SHIFT WITH 20-25KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
ALL SITES. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE THAT WIND GUST COULD OVERACHIEVE
>25KTS. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RAIN SHOWERS HAVE TO
POTENTIAL TO FORM IN THE MORNING WITH THE FORCING OF THE BOUNDARY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BKF
AVIATION...CAL
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