194
FXUS63 KLMK 160525
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
125 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONAL
UPON SURFACE HEATING, AND THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
* COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH BREEZY WINDS,
COLD TEMPS, AND SPOTTY SHOWERS AS IT PASSES.
* COOL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR FROST TO THE BLUEGRASS AND LOW-LYING VALLEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
***********TODAY'S SEVERE POTENTIAL*************************
SINCE THE LAST DISCUSSION, SPC HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE S IN CWA COUNTIES, WITH A SLIGHT JUST CLIPPING
WASHINGTON, ORANGE, DUBOIS, AND SCOTT COUNTIES. WHILE THE UPPER-
LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND AND LOW-END
TORNADO THREAT, THIS RISK IS ENTIRELY BASED ON THE POTENTIAL OF
STORMS TO FORM. AT THE MOMENT, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE HAVE HAD
OR WILL HAVE ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING FOR THESE STORMS TO FORM.
HOWEVER, IF CLEARING OCCURS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS, THIS THREAT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
REALISTIC. THIS THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET AS WE
LOSE THE SURFACE-BASED ENERGY TO SUSTAIN IT.
***********OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT*******************
BOWLING GREEN HAS BROKEN THEIR HIGH RECORD FOR TODAY, ALTHOUGH THEY
ARE LIKELY THE ONLY ONES. CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT THE REST OF THE CWA
IN A FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERY ENVIRONMENT TODAY, PUSHING THE HIGH TEMPS
TOWARD THE LOW 80S INSTEAD. OVERNIGHT, OUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR CLOSE TO SUNRISE. THERE SHOULD BE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
GRADIENT, WITH TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN IN IN THE MID-50S AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KY IN THE MID-60S. WE EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
IN THE SAME DIRECTION, WITH IT PASSING OVER S IN AROUND 08Z. THIS
MEANS THAT TOMORROW'S MAX TEMPS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE, WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 FOR S IN, THE BOWLING GREEN AREA, AND
THE LOUISVILLE AREA. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER 60S
FOR THE BLUEGRASS AND LOW 70S FOR LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA.
WITH THIS COLD FRONT, EXPECT TO SEE A WIND SWITCH FROM SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY TOMORROW, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 13-15 KT RANGE AND GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LIGHT LINE OF SHOWERS IS
ALSO LIKELY, WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY TOMORROW EVENING. TOMORROW
NIGHT'S MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THE 40 DEGREE MARK.
**************THIS WEEKEND'S FALL WEATHER**********************
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE SOME SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WITH WIND DIRECTION SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND A
SURFACE HIGH SETS UP OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT, WINDS SHOULD SLOW DOWN. FROST IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WINDS ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID-30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE DO WARM BACK UP A BIT ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID-60S AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TOWARDS PENNYSYLVANIA, WHERE
IT STAGNATES OVER THE MID-APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CONTINUES WIND SHIFT, TO THE POINT WHERE WE LIKELY HAVE SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY EVENING, ALBEIT LIGHT FLOW. EXPECT CHLLY OVERNIGHT LOWS
AGAIN, IN THE 30S.
THE STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP US SEASONABLE FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT. HOWEVER, CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE VISIBLE FOR
SOME GORGEOUS FALL SUNSETS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER,
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. WE'LL SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AND BELOW FUEL ALTERNATE BY
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. ACCOMPANIED BY THESE LOWER CIGS WILL BE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY NW WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS
POSSIBLE FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THESE IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CATS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL EVENTUALLY SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LATER IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
EAST OF THE REGION.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPH
AVIATION...CJP
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