287
FXUS63 KLMK 160718
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
318 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL
BRING BREEZY WINDS, FALLING TEMPERATURES, AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AS IT PASSES.
* COOL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE FOR
FROST SUNDAY MORNING.
* AFTER TODAY'S LIGHT RAIN, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
===== COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY =====
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL US THIS MORNING,
AND WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR A SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EVENTUALLY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
EARLY ON, CLOUD COVER IS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOW STRATUS OVER THE AREA BY SUNRISE AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY THIS
MORNING SO FAR, WITH READINGS HOVERING IN THE MID-70S SINCE LAST
EVENING. HOWEVER, SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC BOUNDARY HAS PASSED
THROUGH THE ST. LOUIS AREA, WITH KBLV SHOWING A NEARLY 20F
TEMPERATURE DROP IN JUST 3 HOURS, SHOWCASING THE STRONG CAA
FOLLOWING JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT THIS MORNING.
TODAY WILL FEATURE SOME INTERESTING WEATHER AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATER ON THIS MORNING. FIRST, EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS CAA REGIME TAKES OVER WITH FROPA. OUR HIGHEST TEMPS OF
THE DAY LIKELY ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE WARMER PRE-
FRONTAL AIRMASS. SECOND, GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FROPA TO FEATURE AN
ANAFRONT, WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP OCCURRING AFTER THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH. MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX LAGS BEHIND WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS, DISPLACING THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OUTRUN THE BETTER FORCING,
LEADING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, AND LINGERING
EATS OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
0.10" FOR MOST TODAY. OUR PROBABILISTIC PRECIP FORECAST HAS A
GENERAL 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.1" TODAY, AND LESS THAN A 15% OF
EXCEEDING 0.25". THIRD, WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY TODAY DUE TO
THE COMPACT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND WILL ALSO BOOST THE CAA
INFILTRATION.
===== COOLER FALL AIR FINALLY ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND =====
WITH THE HELP OF THE FROPA TODAY, WE'LL FINALLY BREAK THE HOLD THAT
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAD ON OUR REGION AND START FEELING
SOME SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING AND A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, AND
WITH OUR COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE, MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP US DRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S, THOUGH A TOUCH WARMER ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS PEAKING INTO THE 60S. THE MAIN FEATURE TO KEEP TABS ON
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FROST SUNDAY MORNING
WITH MORNING LOWS FORECAST DOWN INTO THE 30S. NO FROST ADVISORY YET
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT CONFIDENCE SEEMS HIGH ENOUGH THAT
WE'LL EVENTUALLY NEED ONE SOMETIME BEFORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 70S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. THERE ARE NO PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS A STRONG HOLD OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER,
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. WE'LL SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AND BELOW FUEL ALTERNATE BY
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. ACCOMPANIED BY THESE LOWER CIGS WILL BE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY NW WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS
POSSIBLE FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THESE IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CATS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL EVENTUALLY SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LATER IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
EAST OF THE REGION.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
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