755
FXUS63 KLMK 171130
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
730 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WITH FROST AND
POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES (OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION) ON
SUNDAY MORNING. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AM.
* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
===== SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR MOST TODAY =====
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SWINGING EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING, AND WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN CLEARING SKYCOVER FOR MOST OF
OUR AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FOR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR COUNTIES, BUT DRY AIR FILTERING IN WILL LEAVE US
DRY TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOL GIVEN THE STRONG CAA REGIME WE ARE,
WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 50S.
===== FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR SUNDAY AM =====
BY TONIGHT, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER AN ALREADY COOL DAY, WITH
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
30S. MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A FROST ADVISORY FOR
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT A FEW COUNTIES IN THE BLUEGRASS, INCLUDING
FAYETTE/LEXINGTON, ARE IN A FREEZE WARNING. THAT AREA HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
AFTER THE CHILLY START, SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
===== DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ALL OF NEXT WEEK =====
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING OVER OUR AREA TODAY WILL
EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY AND
DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINA/NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME STALLED AND MEANDER OVER THAT
AREA FOR A SEVERAL DAYS, POSSIBLY UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN THE UPSTREAM PATTERN TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGING INTO
A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL CAUSE
OUR WEATHER TO BE DRY OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY
WARMING BACK UP TO NORMAL IN THE 70S, THOUGH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY RISING INTO THE LOW VFR CATEGORY AND
DEPARTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS, WHICH ARE GUSTING
CLOSE TO 20 KT AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING, SHOULD RELAX DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
(AROUND 10%) TO ADD ANYTHING TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM
CDT/ SUNDAY FOR KYZ023>035-038>040-045>048-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ036-037-
041>043-049.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM
CDT/ SUNDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
DISCUSSION...CJP
AVIATION...JRB
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