397
FXUS63 KLMK 180125
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
925 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
(SUNDAY) MORNING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 30S.
* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
REGION. LOOKING AT TEMPS VIA PERSONAL WEATHER STATIONS, ASOS, AND
THE KY MESONET, TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
IN THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ON THE
RIDGES. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO COME DOWN AND
THAT IS LIKELY DELAYING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO AN EXTENT.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD
COME DOWN OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME OF THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT A
LIGHT BREEZE MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT WHICH COULD HAMPER
IDEALIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS. AS
FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL SOLIDLY BE IN THE 34-38
DEGREE RANGE. THE HIGHEST RISK OF AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF 32 OR
BELOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN BLUEGRASS WITHIN THE
FREEZE WARNING AREA. ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA OF 32 OR BELOW WILL BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL IN AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN KY.
THE CURRENT HEADLINES CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST
EXPECTED AND A FREEZE IN THE NORTHEASTERN BLUEGRASS REGION. SOME OF
OUR MORE PROTECTED SPOTS IN THE FROST ADVISORY AREA COULD HIT THE
FREEZING MARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WE STILL BELIEVE THAT FROST WILL
BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT HERE, SO NO HEADLINE CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
===== FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM =====
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 50S WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND LOW 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS DUE TO STUBBORN LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL HELP TO
CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS STILL EXPECTED ONCE SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. WE WILL UPDATE BOTH THE FROST ADVISORY
AND FREEZE WARNING WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME WITH THE CAVEAT THAT
A FEW COUNTIES ALONG THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED. SOME OF THE CURRENT HESITATION WAS DUE TO PROBABILITIES FOR
LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW MORNING IN THE HREF AND NBM HAD
DECREASED WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WINDS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 30S IS STILL
ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN.
===== DRY & SEASONAL WEATHER ALL OF NEXT WEEK =====
A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK BEFORE WE SEE SOME CHANGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. MAIN FLOW OF THE JET STREAM WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADA BORDER. TWO CUT-OFF LOWS, ONE OVER
THE ATLANTIC OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ONE IN THE PACIFIC OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LOCK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP WEATHER MAINLY DRY
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MID TO
LATE OCTOBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
EARLIER AFTERNOON CU FIELD HAS DIMINISHED AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 2-4KTS BUT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM
CDT/ SUNDAY FOR KYZ023>035-038>040-045>048-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ036-037-
041>043-049.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM
CDT/ SUNDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
UPDATE.......MJ
DISCUSSION...BTN
AVIATION.....MJ
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