821
FXUS63 KLMK 180653
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
253 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM EDT (8AM
CDT) THIS MORNING.
* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WE HAVE CRYSTAL CLEAR SKY COVER THIS MORNING, AND WITH SFC WINDS
GOING CALM, WE ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING THIS MORNING. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS IS FOR
THIS MORNING, AND PLAN FOR THEM TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 13Z. FOR TODAY,
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AGAIN, WITH WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST
AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SITS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US. EVEN
THOUGH WE HAVE A CHILLY START TODAY, TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAKER CAA THAN YESTERDAY.
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND SEASONAL FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK AHEAD. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN INTO
AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY, AND WILL STALL OUT
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER PATTERN JET
STREAKS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE DAYS AHEAD, WHICH
MEANS CONUS WILL LACK ANY MOMENTUM TO ERADICATE THE STAGNANT UPPER
LOW FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES EVEN MORE BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN PNW
UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA, RESULTING IN AN OMEGA
PATTERN TO TAKE SHAPE FROM SEA TO SHINING SEA. THIS KEEPS US DRY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH DAILY TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, WITH A 1030+ MB SFC HIGH AIDING IN TEMPS POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE UPPER 70S BY THEN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
GENERAL WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE EAST TODAY AND UNDER 10KTS.
SKC WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ023>035-038>040-045>048-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ036-037-
041>043-049.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
DISCUSSION...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
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