240
FXUS63 KLMK 190656
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
256 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PATCHY FROST THIS MORNING. FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT
(8 AM CDT).
* HIGH CONFIDENCE (NEAR 100% CHANCE) IN DRY WEATHER ALL WEEK.
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, MOST PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY, WILL WORSEN IN RESPONSE.
* MILD, FALL-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS (UPPER 60S TO MID 70S) FOLLOWED BY CRISP MORNINGS
(UPPER 30S TO MID 40S).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
===== DRY AND SUNNY OVER THE NEXT WEEK =====
ANOTHER VERY CLEAR MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US, WITH
THE ENTIRE OHIO VALLEY UNDER CLEAR SKY COVER. IT IS CHILLY THIS
MORNING FOR MOST, WITH RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS NOTED ON THE KY MESONET,
WITH THE COOLER VALLEYS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S, BUT TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S SO FAR ON THE RIDGES. EXPECT TEMPS TO COOL A
BIT MORE BEFORE SUNRISE GIVEN THE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND BOOSTING
OUR RADIATIONAL COOLING. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED, SO THE FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY, KEEPING
THE SKYCOVER CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOME PLACES
TOUCHING 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO.
EXPECT A RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD,
WITH BEAUTIFUL FALL WEATHER AND AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STAGNANT UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST
COAST, WHICH WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE VIRGINA/NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS ANY UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM REMAINS NORTH ACROSS
CANADA. UPSTREAM OF THAT FEATURE, THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE A
GROWING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN A PACIFIC
UPPER LOW COMES ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. WITH UPPER LOWS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE US, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO A
BROAD OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE PATTERN, WE'LL LIKELY SEE TEMPS
GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID-70S BY THE WEEKEND WHEN THE
RIDGE AXIS AND WARMER LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW MOVE OVER OUR AREA. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH NO POPS IN THE SEVEN DAY
FORECAST.
===== WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ====
WHILE THE BEAUTIFUL FALL WEATHER WILL BE NICE TO HAVE, IT DOES COME
WITH A CATCH. THIS PROLONGED DRY PERIOD COULD WORSEN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. ALMOST OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS NOW
EXPERIENCING AT LEAST ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) CONDITIONS, WITH SOUTH-
CENTRAL KY EVEN WORSE WITH MODERATE DROUGHT (D1). SINCE SEPT 1,
LOUISVILLE (SDF) AND LEXINGTON ARE BOTH RUNNING MORE THAN 2.5" BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BOWLING GREEN IS ONLY BEHIND
0.58" SINCE SEPT 1, BUT THE BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS THEY ARE 5.25"
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE THE START OF 2026. WITH NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, THESE CLIMATOLOGICAL DEPARTURES
FROM NORMAL WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR AND SKC WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ARE CALM
THIS MORNING, AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS A SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ024-025-027>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-074>078-081-
082.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
DISCUSSION...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
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