627
FXUS63 KLMK 191833
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
233 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. IN ADDITION, SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE (NEAR 100% CHANCE) IN DRY WEATHER ALL WEEK.
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, MOST PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY, WILL WORSEN IN RESPONSE.
* MILD, FALL-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS (UPPER 60S TO MID 70S) FOLLOWED BY CRISP MORNINGS
(UPPER 30S TO MID 40S).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
ONLY REAL ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS LOWER DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON
THANKS TO STRONG DRY AIR MIX DOWN SIGNAL, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FROST, AND/OR RIVER VALLEY FOG IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS
TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER THOSE TWO ISSUES IN COORDINATION
WITH ILN/JKL. EXPECTING SOME UPPER SKY COVER TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA, SO A BIT MORE CONFIDENT IN THESE THREATS EAST OF I-65.
OTHERWISE, DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD FOR THE ENTIRE
WEEK AS EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. MEANWHILE, A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE
RIO GRANDE UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND, DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES
ON MORE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK LOOK.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S THROUGH THE
WEEK, HOWEVER WITH THE STRONGER RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND WE COULD PUSH
MORE INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. THIS IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE EXPECTED
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW AND MID 40S THROUGH THE WEEK, HOWEVER
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME OF THE COOLEST/SHELTERED VALLEYS
MAY STILL FIND THE UPPER 30S. SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
OUR COOLEST EASTERN VALLEYS.
THE OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST INVOLVED LOWERING DEW POINTS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEK. DEEPER MIXING
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRY AIR MIX DOWN POTENTIAL FROM THE HYDROLAPSE,
SO HAVE MIRRORED DEW POINTS CLOSER TO THE 19/12Z CANADIAN MODEL IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
===== WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ====
WHILE THE BEAUTIFUL FALL WEATHER WILL BE NICE TO HAVE, IT DOES COME
WITH A CATCH. THIS PROLONGED DRY PERIOD COULD WORSEN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. ALMOST OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS NOW
EXPERIENCING AT LEAST ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) CONDITIONS, WITH SOUTH-
CENTRAL KY EVEN WORSE WITH MODERATE DROUGHT (D1). SINCE SEPT 1,
LOUISVILLE (SDF) AND LEXINGTON ARE BOTH RUNNING MORE THAN 2.5" BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BOWLING GREEN IS ONLY BEHIND
0.58" SINCE SEPT 1, BUT THE BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS THEY ARE 5.25"
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE THE START OF 2026. WITH NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, THESE CLIMATOLOGICAL DEPARTURES
FROM NORMAL WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD, AND LIKELY ALL WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS ARE CALM THIS MORNING,
AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH A MORE STEADY NE SURFACE WIND 5
TO 10 MPH.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
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